Iran war likely temporary market impact; oil prices will be affected but markets will revert to pre-war anxieties; war important geopolitically but may not be enduring market problem.

Doesn't think Iran has capacity to close Strait of Hormuz long-term; base case is market reflection will be temporary.

From market view, Iran war might be less important than geopolitical view; market was fragile pre-war with credit anxiety; base case remains positive with GDP growth, inflation moving right direction, rate cuts coming, fiscal stimulus, and hyperscaler spending.

Acknowledges wealth inequality issues and polarization but emphasizes macro economy creating wealth well.

We haven't had a reckoning since 2008; lack of discipline due to long period without forced selling/price discovery; low rates led to undisciplined investments; longer reckoning takes, worse it will be; eventually assets will pour into market at inconvenient time.

Base case still 'wind at our back' but acknowledges eventual end to cycle.

World less integrated than thought; examples from financial crisis and COVID show national priorities override global cooperation; supply chains and rare earths matter for national security; deglobalization trend acknowledged.

Notes sentiment shifts erase memory of previous thinking patterns; believes connections with Russia/China will come back eventually.