ECB data-dependent stance and second-round effects (with Francine Lacqua)

6/11/2026 6:18:26 PM	short term up	5 days later	-9.53%	-9.53%
3/25/2026 12:54:23 PM	short term up	5 days later	+7.30%	+7.30%

Asks what's changed since the ECB's recent hike.

Francine Lacqua

Philip Lane

Oil prices have moved quite a bit since the decision. Confidence indices have improved but not returned to pre-war levels. Consumers and investors need to see the peace agreement convert into something more durable before taking a more decisive revision of views.

Asks whether ongoing talks bring us closer to the milder or baseline scenario.

Francine Lacqua

Philip Lane

Oil prices have reverted to pre-war levels, but the market expects them to stay well above pre-war levels for 2027-2028 due to global restocking demand. This means a cost increase impulse to the economy for a couple of years.

Asks if the last hike was an insurance hike.

Francine Lacqua

Philip Lane

The decision was robust across a wide range of scenarios, including rapid oil price normalization. He would reserve 'insurance hike' for a tiebreaker situation. This was a clear decision.

Asks if it's better to hike in July or September given uncertainty.

Francine Lacqua

Philip Lane

Second-round effects will take time. He's focused on indirect effects — how four months of energy cost increases percolate into food and services inflation. The tension is whether firms can recover costs by raising prices or absorb them in profit margins now that fuel prices are falling.

Only after that can we assess how strong second-round effects on wages will be.

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