Andrew Siszewski sees the hawkish dot plot and press conference as a credibility-building exercise ('bark, not bite'). He believes the Fed may not follow through if oil prices stay low. He notes the bond market saw a significant flattening, with breakevens falling. He views the inflation problem as solely oil-driven and supply-shock-based. He expects changes to inflation data (e.g., OER) and sees housing as weak but data centers filling the construction void.
explicit
implicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Morgan Stanley
9.0
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Andrew Siszewski 8.5
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Andrew Siszewski 8.5
6/18/2026 2:29:35 AM
ndx
The guest noted risk assets are falling on the hawkish news, implying a negative short-term outlook for equities.
wti
Oil's just fallen to $75. If the truce with Iran is longer lasting, you'll continue to see breakevens come down.
| 5/27/2026 1:06:05 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -13.62% | -13.62% |
| 5/12/2026 6:55:36 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/7/2026 7:48:56 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -6.83% | -3.42% |
| 3/28/2026 12:19:11 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -12.90% | -12.90% |
| 3/12/2026 10:06:31 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.42% | -2.42% |
| 1/5/2026 1:42:32 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +4.15% | -2.07% |
yields
This is one of the biggest flattening days we've seen. The 30-year yield is down despite the move in the front end.
| 5/20/2026 9:05:17 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -2.03% |
| 5/13/2026 1:42:53 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +2.31% |
| 5/7/2026 7:48:56 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.09% | -1.04% |
| 3/28/2026 12:19:11 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 12/23/2025 1:36:10 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.48% | +0.24% |
| 12/18/2025 1:46:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.39% |
| 12/8/2025 1:14:06 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.67% | +0.84% |
| 12/2/2025 9:28:55 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.76% | -1.38% |
| 11/28/2025 6:46:36 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +1.78% | -1.78% |
| 11/25/2025 12:34:15 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +3.78% | -3.78% |
| 11/22/2025 1:57:04 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.57% | -1.78% |
| 11/14/2025 8:08:25 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -2.30% | +1.15% |
| 11/12/2025 1:48:25 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.13% |
| 11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.73% | +1.86% |
| 11/3/2025 5:11:21 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.25% | +0.62% |
| 10/21/2025 3:40:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 9/24/2025 2:05:49 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 9/17/2025 8:50:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/8/2025 7:17:58 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.98% | +0.49% |
| 9/4/2025 5:07:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.10% | -1.05% |
| 8/12/2025 6:27:35 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.43% | -1.22% |
| 8/5/2025 10:59:28 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.90% | -0.90% |
| 8/5/2025 2:12:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.26% | -0.63% |
