Economist on Fed policy, inflation, dollar, and Japan (with David Weston)

Yields cautious down , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Harvard 1.8
University
Jason Furman 8.5

Economist on Fed policy, inflation, dollar, and Japan (with David Weston)

dxy

President Trump first of all is open to a weaker dollar... a weaker dollar would help redress some of that imbalance in the United States Furman discusses Trump's openness to weaker dollar and its economic benefits, suggesting downward pressure on DXY.

9/17/2025 1:00:49 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.54%	-1.54%

yields

We're looking pretty close. and they just sounded happier than they've sounded in a while. Furman explicitly states Fed is close to cutting rates, implying lower yields ahead.

12/9/2025 1:32:13 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-0.82%	-0.41%
11/1/2025 2:00:00 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-1.66%	+0.83%
9/17/2025 1:00:49 PM	long term up	60 days later	+0.71%	+0.71%
9/5/2025 11:17:40 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	-0.30%	+0.15%
9/4/2025 12:03:38 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-1.32%	-0.66%
8/16/2025 2:06:17 AM	short term cautious down	7 days later	-1.52%	+0.76%
8/8/2025 8:34:45 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+1.59%	+0.80%
8/4/2025 4:53:03 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.88%	-0.94%

Show all 8 yields results

Asks if Fed is 'there yet' with rate cuts and what's given them confidence.

David Weston
Jason Furman

Says Fed is looking pretty close to cuts, with unemployment ticking down and softness in inflation numbers.

Notes quirks elevating inflation numbers and reasonable to think inflation is going down, not up.
Asks where inflation risk could come from.

David Weston
Jason Furman

Identifies inflation expectations, tariff pass-through, and economic tailwinds (fiscal expansion, data centers, weak dollar) as potential inflation sources.

Says tailwinds could show up in real growth or inflation, no one can be totally confident.
Asks why tariffs haven't caused more inflation.

David Weston
Jason Furman

Businesses absorbed more tariff costs than expected, but auto companies selling at loss won't continue forever; tariffs have been dialed back.
Asks about unemployment stabilization and immigration impact.

David Weston
Jason Furman

Mostly due to limited immigration supply; with aging workforce and low fertility, fewer jobs needed to keep unemployment constant.
Discusses Trump's comments on dollar weakening and its export benefits.

David Weston
Jason Furman

Finds Trump's market-based dollar view refreshing; weaker dollar could help trade deficit but at expense of American consumers via higher prices.

Notes weaker dollar historically unpopular and could be good economically but bad politically for Trump.
Asks about turmoil in Japanese government bonds.

David Weston
Jason Furman

Says Japan is experiencing normal macroeconomics after long abnormality; with inflation, investors want more compensation for lending to Japan.

Compares to Liz Truss episode but smaller due to Japan's larger economy and domestic savings.
Asks about geopolitical tensions and tariff retaliation risks.

David Weston
Jason Furman

Most countries didn't retaliate to US tariffs last year; risk depends on direction of US tariffs - if increased, could see more retaliation.

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