Oil prices are sinking on an Axios report that the US and Iran are closer to a deal than at any point since the war began. A one-page, 14-point MOU is on the table and Iran's foreign ministry has confirmed they have the document and are evaluating it.

The MOU would declare an end to the war, start a 30-day period of talks, both sides would lift their blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would commit to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, and in exchange the US would lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. President Trump posted on Truth Social framing this as a 'deal or destruction' moment for Iran.

Markets really like what they see right now and the report signals that both sides want a deal after almost three months of stalemate.

Key hurdles remain: Iran's leadership is deeply divided, and narrowing the gap on critical issues for Gulf States like who controls Hormuz long term and the fate of Iran's proxies, missiles, and drones are all key sticking points. The next 48 hours are critical.