Jeffrey Rosenberg argues the Fed is set for a hawkish turn due to accelerating data, a stronger labor market, and supply shocks from oil. He believes the market is pricing in a full hike for the year, which feels right, but the Fed will move slowly and is unlikely to aggressively tighten unless inflation reaccelerates. The strong labor report may have one-offs, but the trend is gradual strengthening.
implicit
NDX
explicit
Metals
USD
BlackRock
9.5
Asset Manager $10500.00B
Jeffrey Rosenberg 9.0
Asset Manager $10500.00B
Jeffrey Rosenberg 9.0
6/5/2026 4:32:53 PM
rut
Rosenberg notes a stronger labor market but with one-offs, suggesting small caps may not see a clear directional move, remaining rangebound as the Fed adjusts.
wti
A fourth supply side shock in the form of the war and its impact on oil inflation.
| 5/28/2026 3:47:04 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +10.29% | +15.44% |
| 3/12/2026 3:12:31 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.42% | -2.42% |
| 1/6/2026 1:09:12 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +11.43% | -5.72% |
| 8/5/2025 2:33:26 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.61% | +0.61% |
yields
Rosenberg states the Fed is set for a hawkish turn and markets are pricing in a full hike, implying upward pressure on yields in the near term.
