Silver Price Warning: Why The $70 Level Matters

Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group argues that investment demand, not physical scarcity, is the primary driver of precious metals prices. He expects gold to consolidate around $4,500 with potential short-term dips to $4,000-$4,100, but sees a supportive economic/political environment for higher prices medium-term. Silver may spike down to $60 but is supported. Platinum's price moves are explained by ETF flows. He also discusses silver in batteries and India's economic pressures on gold/silver markets.

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CPM Group 3.0
Trade Association
Jeffrey Christian 9.0

Silver Price Warning: Why The $70 Level Matters

silver; gold

metals

Palladium is breaking down below a support level that's around 1350-1380. The palladium market is a little bit more vulnerable than the platinum, gold, and silver markets.

23 calls

+17

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

5/5/2026 9:15:25 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+4.44%	-2.22%
3/26/2026 10:36:06 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+8.71%	+4.36%
3/17/2026 8:10:23 PM	long term up	61 days later	-3.12%	-3.12%
3/10/2026 8:21:46 PM	long term up	61 days later	-5.42%	-5.42%
2/2/2026 9:12:01 AM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+1.02%	-1.52%
1/27/2026 11:28:44 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-21.66%	-21.66%
1/23/2026 11:34:16 PM	long term up	60 days later	-22.49%	-22.49%
1/2/2026 11:05:46 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	+24.33%	+12.16%
12/29/2025 6:58:39 PM	long term up	62 days later	+19.88%	+19.88%
12/19/2025 11:20:49 PM	short term up	7 days later	+0.39%	+0.39%
12/9/2025 9:56:43 PM	long term up	61 days later	+25.27%	+25.27%
12/2/2025 10:26:11 PM	long term up	61 days later	+19.34%	+19.34%
10/21/2025 9:30:46 PM	long term up	61 days later	+18.75%	+18.75%
10/14/2025 12:02:53 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-0.74%	-1.11%
9/19/2025 9:15:26 PM	long term sharp up	60 days later	+10.10%	+15.15%
9/12/2025 9:25:11 PM	short term up	7 days later	+2.06%	+2.06%
9/9/2025 9:15:19 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.78%	+1.78%
9/5/2025 7:05:22 PM	long term up	60 days later	+12.34%	+12.34%
8/26/2025 8:08:07 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+8.84%	+8.84%
8/22/2025 8:43:34 PM	short term up	8 days later	+5.10%	+5.10%
8/13/2025 5:13:42 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+6.88%	+6.88%
8/8/2025 8:04:49 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-0.25%	-0.38%
8/5/2025 7:24:42 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+0.66%	+0.99%

Show all 23 metals results

Jeffrey Christian

Gold prices are consolidating around $4,500 and our expectation is that's going to continue. There is downside risk; if price breaks below 4,400 it could go to 4,100 or 4,000, possibly 3,800 or 3,500 over the next several months. However, we don't think it'll fall that far, but $4,000 or $4,100 is possible. Any spike down would be short-lived, similar to the March FOMC drop from $5,000 to $4,100 over three days, then back above $4,500 within two days.

We're seeing some investors backing away from precious metals investments now. Investment demand is the primary determinant of precious metals prices. We don't think investors will let the price fall that far. Any spike down will probably be met by a wave of new investment demand which would take the price back up.
Jeffrey Christian

For silver, there's a longer-term trend line from early 2024 providing support around $30-$33 an ounce. A shorter-term trend line from Q2 last year shows support around $70. We could see a spike down to $60 or $50, but we're not convinced we'll see $30 or $33 in the next several months because the economic and political environment driving investment demand is going to be pretty bad and then get worse, which will support precious metals investment demand and higher prices.

We saw halfway decent employment figures today for the US (173,000 new jobs, unemployment unchanged at 4.3%), but there are clouds on the horizon. The silver price easily could be spiked down to $60 again.
Jeffrey Christian

Platinum prices are testing support levels that began last June. The price increase from mid-last year to January was driven by an enormous surge of investors buying platinum in ETF form (300,000+ ounces). After the price reached almost $3,000 in January, about two-thirds of that platinum was sold over the next three to four months. The price rise and fall was all about investment demand visible primarily in ETFs.

Half of the purchases and sales were in South African ETFs, where institutional investors use platinum ETFs in lieu of investing directly in mining stocks. Mine production, secondary supply, and fabrication demand were all relatively flat.
Jeffrey Christian

Palladium is breaking down below a support level around $1,350-$1,380. The palladium market is more vulnerable than platinum, gold, and silver because it's a smaller market and less attended to by investors, so it tends to be more vulnerable to investors losing interest.
Jeffrey Christian

The early 2026 silver price peak was not about scarcity, real or fake. It had everything to do with investors buying gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper as the US sent military forces to the Gulf region and kept saying we were going to attack Iran. The price rose because investors were buying into it. There's plenty of metal around - COMEX registered stocks are still around 82 million ounces, roughly unchanged for the last several months.

A lot of investors who were not long-term gold and silver investors saw the price rising and poured in, then left. That's what was going on.
Jeffrey Christian

Regarding silver in batteries: Samsung developed technology to add silver to liquid electrolyte lithium-ion batteries to reduce fire risks, but it's expensive and would only be used in high-end devices. Solid-state lithium-ion batteries are being developed that obviate the fire risk. Adding silver also helps charge batteries more rapidly. Solid-state silver batteries have been around for half a century (e.g., in HP-12C calculators).

Historically, when gold and silver prices rose in 1979-80, manufacturers like HP, Kodak, and IBM substituted away from precious metals. HP redesigned calculators to use less gold and silver. Kodak developed T-Grain technology to use less silver per frame. IBM switched from gold to palladium in connectors in 1976. This substitution dynamic is important to pay attention to.
Jeffrey Christian

The Indian economy is suffering due to reduced trade with Gulf nations and high oil import prices, which have hammered foreign exchange availability. The government has responded with import quotas and duties on gold and silver, requiring bona fide user status to import. The Prime Minister asked people to stop buying jewelry. People are holding onto their gold and silver rather than selling for rupees, reducing domestic scrap supply and tightening the market further.

One major gold ETF provider in India has put a cap on how large a purchase you can make. There's a lot of tightness there.

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