Multiple drivers: geopolitical uncertainty, dollar weakness, and the 'when' not 'if' Fed cut backdrop. A key change is central bank behavior—they are now targeting absolute tonnage of gold, not just percentage of reserves.

Cites Poland targeting 700 tons, implying 150 tons of buying on top of being last year's largest buyer. This structural buying could be higher than expected.

It's about where to put reserves. With the dollar's share declining and no clear alternative, gold holds value over time. Central banks want to protect reserve value, and gold is a natural hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty.

Notes Brazil also bought in September after four years, showing it's widespread.

Geopolitical uncertainty is the number one driver for the last week's price action, but other factors set the scene.

Price momentum is also very important.

Silver is much smaller than gold in traded volume. It's partly industrial, partly precious. Industrial demand (solar, electronics) has pushed the market into deficits. Safe-haven ETF buying now needs physical metal that isn't freely available, causing a squeeze, especially in China.

China is trading at a 15% premium to London/NY because physical metal is not available. London vault silver is owned by ETFs.