Metals and Mining Strategist on aluminum, gold, and supply chain shifts (with Joanna, Tom)

Aluminum prices are grinding higher due to Gulf production losses (9% of global, 4-5% lost) with 12-month restart timelines. Gold is behaving as expected in a supply shock (bond yields up, liquidity source). Central bank buying structurally continues, with China increasing purchases. Supply restrictions and stockpiling are becoming global themes, raising medium-term metal forecasts.

Yields

NDX

RUT

Oil cautious up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

Metals cautious up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

USD

Morgan Stanley 8.4
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Amy Gower 8.5

Metals and Mining Strategist on aluminum, gold, and supply chain shifts (with Joanna, Tom)

metals

We've raised many of our medium-term forecasts for industrial metals because we do think this [stockpiling] will be something we should consider as we look forward.

12/22/2025 11:02:38 PM	long term up	62 days later	+17.06%	+17.06%
11/28/2025 6:46:36 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	+10.67%	+5.33%

wti

The supply shock context (bond yields up) is similar for oil; aluminum tightness suggests broader commodity pressure.

5/12/2026 6:55:36 PM	short term up	5 days later	+7.56%	+7.56%
4/30/2026 3:32:46 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-6.73%	+3.36%
3/28/2026 12:19:11 AM	medium term up	21 days later	-12.90%	-12.90%
3/12/2026 10:06:31 AM	short term up	5 days later	-2.42%	-2.42%
1/5/2026 1:42:32 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+4.15%	-2.07%

Show all 5 wti results

Joanna

Asks about aluminum reaching a four-year high and how much is due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and smelter disruptions.
Amy Gower

Aluminum has been a grind higher. The Gulf accounts for ~9% of global production, with ~4-5% lost. Smelters are damaged, requiring 12-month restart timelines, so tightness will persist.
Joanna

Asks about China potentially imposing output restrictions on aluminum.
Amy Gower

China has been producing and exporting a lot, overshooting its capacity cap. Reports of potential clampdown on overproduction could push aluminum higher, as destocking can't go on forever.
Tom

Asks if there is evidence of demand destruction in metals.
Amy Gower

In the US, aluminum prices are already $6,000 (LME + tariff/premium), and people are still paying it, showing resilience. In China, copper orders reduced in May, but it's likely a pause, not real demand destruction.
Tom

Asks about gold behaving like a risk asset, falling to a two-month low.
Amy Gower

Gold is behaving as expected in a supply shock: bond yields are up, which is challenging for gold. It has also been a source of liquidity (ETF selling, Turkey selling, India holding off purchases).
Joanna

Asks if central bank gold buying will continue structurally.
Amy Gower

Central bank behavior tends to endure. They flipped to net buyers in 2011, then to 1000 tons/year in 2022. Buying may slow due to high prices, but the trend continues. China has increased purchases to 8 tons/month in April.
Tom

Asks if more countries are imposing restrictions and quotas on commodities.
Amy Gower

Yes, two themes: more countries thinking about stockpiling (US Project Vault, Europe, Australia, South Korea) and more restrictions (Indonesia on nickel/quota, Zimbabwe on lithium, Guinea on bauxite). This is raising medium-term metal forecasts.

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