Cross-asset strategy amid AI exuberance and geopolitical risks (with Anna Edwards, Tom Mackenzie, Guy Johnson)

Sophie Huynh sees sentiment as exuberant and positioning bullish, with tail risks not priced in. She is concerned about a potential oil shortage after a Strait of Hormuz reopening, which could derail markets. She is long semis, utilities, biotech, and sees gold as a portfolio diversifier.

Yields

NDX

RUT

Oil volatile , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

Metals up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

USD

BNP Paribas 8.5
Investment Bank $600.00B
Sophie Huynh 8.0

Cross-asset strategy amid AI exuberance and geopolitical risks (with Anna Edwards, Tom Mackenzie, Guy Johnson)

metals

Gold could be a portfolio diversifier and will be back in the forefront if the Strait of Hormuz reopening is not smooth.

5 calls

+19

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

2/10/2026 10:29:45 AM	medium term up	20 days later	-0.91%	-0.91%
1/30/2026 2:11:38 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+6.99%	-3.50%
1/19/2026 12:07:16 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	+9.93%	+4.96%
12/22/2025 2:27:08 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+7.73%	+7.73%
9/10/2025 2:18:05 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+8.44%	+12.66%

Show all 5 metals results

wti

Expects a period of shortage after a potential reopening, which is not priced. This implies volatility and potential upside risk.

Asks about her overall sense of markets, noting she described sentiment as 'exuberant'.

Anna Edwards
Sophie Huynh

Sentiment has fully recovered, positioning is starting to look on the bullish side. Hopes of a Strait of Hormuz reopening on top of the AI trade have pushed investors to be more bullish, but tail risks are not taken into account.

Surveys show the probability of a hard landing is very low.
Asks if tail risks include a bursting AI bubble.

Anna Edwards
Sophie Huynh

Focuses on token rationing as a key issue. The bigger risk is the timing of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The consensus view of a smooth reopening is wrong; there will be a period of shortage that is not priced.

Inventories are very low. Refineries will not start immediately in the Middle East. There will be a period of shortage.
Asks what derails the equity market: physical crude running out, over-exuberance, or geopolitics.

Tom Mackenzie
Sophie Huynh

It could be a combination: central banks reacting incorrectly to a supply energy shock, and the fact that positioning and hopes on the economic outlook are skewed one way. Breadth in the equity market has been very weak.

Smart consensus on sectors like retail and autos, which are sensitive to energy, is not in line with what's happening.
Asks if she is ready to buy European luxury and airlines.

Tom Mackenzie
Sophie Huynh

No. She is still long semis, utilities, and biotech. For laggards, she prefers China internet, which has a better fundamental story and is uncorrelated to US tech.

China tech is more internet-focused and has been hurt by lack of AI adoption, but that is changing. Cash flow has been hurt by food subsidies, but companies like Tencent are shifting toward AI.
Asks how to manage tech exposure if one believes tech will come lower, given concentration and lack of alternatives.

Guy Johnson
Sophie Huynh

If worried about tech, consider that AI has three phases (hardware, physical AI, unicorn sectors). The unicorn sectors (e.g., auto shifting supply chain to AI) are not priced yet. Gold is also a good portfolio diversifier, as it has been left behind.

Gold has been hurt because central banks are using it as currency support. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't reopen smoothly, gold will be back in the forefront.

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