Global liquidity, inflation, and Fed policy dilemma (with Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern)

Yields cautious down , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX sideways , medium term, gpt inferred

inferred

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Bank of America 8.8
Investment Bank $3040.00B
Claudio Irigoyen 9.0

Global liquidity, inflation, and Fed policy dilemma (with Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern)

ndx

While not directly addressing NDX, his view of strong economy, sticky inflation, and Fed nearing neutral suggests limited multiple expansion, with AI-driven earnings offset by valuation concerns, leading to rangebound performance.

yields

Expects 2 more cuts (June, July), terminal rate 3-3.25%... December cut could be insurance cut.

16 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

11/13/2025 8:45:37 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.96%	+0.48%
10/29/2025 1:10:31 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/15/2025 6:53:52 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
9/18/2025 10:17:17 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.19%	-0.10%
9/17/2025 6:36:22 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.39%	+0.19%
9/17/2025 4:38:45 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.61%	-0.30%
9/5/2025 10:40:41 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+2.35%	-1.17%
9/3/2025 5:31:38 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	-0.69%	+1.04%
8/14/2025 9:14:07 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.74%	+0.37%

Show all 9 yields results

Asks what solidified December Fed cut call.

Lisa Abramowicz
Claudio Irigoyen

Market expects cuts vs Fed should do; economy doing well, financial conditions not tight. Expects 2 more cuts (June, July), terminal rate 3-3.25%.

Inflation won't be near target before end of 2026; most central banks have inflation above target, ending easing cycles.
Asks why inflation expectations remain contained.

Lisa Abramowicz
Claudio Irigoyen

Technical issues; markets focus on long-term inflation expectations, but companies focus on 1-2 year expectations which are not near 2%.

Underlying inflation issue persists unrelated to tariffs.
Asks how Fed continuously cuts if inflation is problem.

Annmarie Hordern
Claudio Irigoyen

Debate between what they will do and should do. December cut could be insurance cut; could pause to wait for more data.

Between Dec and Jan meetings, will have three employment numbers, two unemployment numbers.
Asks if financial conditions are tight for lower-end consumer.

Annmarie Hordern
Claudio Irigoyen

Not necessarily; consumption is K-shaped, lower income brackets only 15-20% of aggregate consumption. Labor market may recover, supporting consumption.

Six months from now, could see strong economy making cuts look too much.
Asks about global debt and growth backdrop.

Lisa Abramowicz
Claudio Irigoyen

2025 driven by Trump policies, AI boom, China export capacity, fiscal deficits, excess global liquidity. 2026: Trump focuses more on regulation, less trade escalation.

Excess global liquidity is common factor driving rallies across all asset classes globally.
Asks if US still brightest spot.

Lisa Abramowicz
Claudio Irigoyen

Fiscal problems not US only; convergence between developed and emerging markets for wrong reasons. US growth projected 2.5%, Europe 1%, Japan <1%.

Within developed economies, US story still brightest.

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