implicit
implicit
explicit
Metals
implicit
Federal Reserve
9.0
Central Bank
John Williams 7.0
Central Bank
John Williams 7.0
4/7/2026 4:38:39 PM
wti
I expect headline inflation to actually be elevated in the middle of this year... energy prices are important component of that.
Directly links Middle East conflict (Iran) to higher energy prices, expecting them to elevate inflation in the near term.
| 4/7/2026 4:34:26 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.95% | +4.95% |
| 3/23/2026 4:18:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/23/2026 3:29:56 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +7.29% |
| 3/23/2026 3:17:02 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/20/2026 5:36:27 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:29:36 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -12.21% |
| 3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/18/2026 9:30:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/9/2026 4:35:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/6/2026 9:15:32 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +8.59% |
| 3/6/2026 3:21:26 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +12.89% |
| 3/5/2026 5:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/5/2026 4:38:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/23/2025 11:29:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.37% | -2.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.45% | +3.45% |
| 8/28/2025 10:35:20 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.06% | +0.06% |
| 8/20/2025 10:17:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.43% |
yields
Expects elevated headline inflation (potentially above 3%) due to energy prices, which suggests upward pressure on yields as markets price in inflation risk. Core inflation stable at 2.5% and policy 'well-positioned' implies no immediate aggressive tightening, hence 'cautious' up.
