PGIM economist sees prolonged Middle East uncertainty keeping energy risk premium high, pushing ECB to hike marginally while Fed stays on hold due to mixed signals and leadership uncertainty. US inflation more vulnerable to energy shock given resilient economy; Europe/UK face demand destruction containing inflation. Warsh likely to preserve Fed independence but pursue reforms.
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PGIM 7.8
Asset Manager $1400.00B
Katherine Nice 7.5
PGIM economist on Middle East economic impact and central banks (with Guy, Tom)
4/22/2026 1:36:12 PM
wti
higher for longer energy prices are going to be more impactful on inflation Prolonged uncertainty from Middle East conflict means a big risk premium baked into energy prices that won't go away soon.
3 calls
-14
slightly worse than random
3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -5.74% -8.61%
1/7/2026 1:57:49 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +5.87% -2.93%
yields
I expect marginal rises in ECB rates ECB needs to signal credibility in containing inflation from the energy shock, and has provided clear reaction function.
7 calls
+4
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
1/7/2026 1:57:49 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.63% +0.81%
1/5/2026 10:58:21 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.81% +0.81%
12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM medium term up 21 days later -0.07% -0.07%
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