Sen. McCormick on Fed Chair Warsh, Iran, and China Summit (with Joe Mathieu)

Sen. McCormick expresses confidence in new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as a reformer who will build consensus, focusing on shrinking the balance sheet and debating the deflationary impact of AI. He believes the Iran conflict will end 'relatively quickly', allowing energy markets to adjust. He supports a temporary gas tax holiday and views the China summit as a diplomatic opportunity to manage the primary adversary relationship, with potential deals on AI, trade, and Iran.

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RUT

explicit

Metals

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U.S. Senate 6.2
Government Agency
Dave McCormick 7.5

Sen. McCormick on Fed Chair Warsh, Iran, and China Summit (with Joe Mathieu)

ndx

this AI Revolution we're experiencing is going to increase productivity and be deflationary

2 calls

+14

slightly better than random

9/10/2025 4:33:16 PM	long term cautious up	60 days later	+6.75%	+3.37%

rut

McCormick highlights strong inbound investment in Pennsylvania (data centers, shipyard, AWS) and a strong economy, which supports a cautiously positive outlook for small caps (RUT).

wti

we will find an end to this conflict relatively quickly and when we do I think you're going to see energy markets adjust relatively quickly as well

12 calls

-7

slightly worse than random

5/6/2026 3:03:59 AM	short term up	5 days later	+7.77%	+7.77%
3/17/2026 7:07:05 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-8.50%	-4.25%
3/10/2026 7:28:35 PM	long term cautious down	61 days later	+12.40%	-6.20%
3/10/2026 3:31:15 PM	long term cautious down	61 days later	+12.40%	-6.20%
2/24/2026 3:05:30 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+47.07%	-23.53%
10/31/2025 2:15:32 AM	short term up	7 days later	-1.51%	-1.51%

Show all 6 wti results

yields

McCormick's view that the Iran conflict will end 'relatively quickly' and that the Fed will 'look past' the current inflation shock suggests he expects the inflationary pressure to be transitory, which would prevent a sustained move higher in yields.

Joe Mathieu

Asks what Kevin Warsh's first action will be as Fed Chair.
Dave McCormick

Warsh is a reformer who wants to run the Fed with open debate ('family meetings'). He has a clear view on shrinking the balance sheet and believes the AI revolution will increase productivity and be deflationary. His starting point will be taking stock and laying the predicate for the future.
Joe Mathieu

Asks if Warsh will have consensus on changing inflation metrics and shrinking the balance sheet.
Dave McCormick

Warsh will forge consensus over time by having the committee review data together and think about it differently, taking into account the atypical situation with Iran. The Fed hasn't had that kind of strong leadership or embraced the need for open debate.
Joe Mathieu

Asks if Warsh will be effectively handcuffed on rates as long as the Iran war is underway, given hot PPI and CPI data and gas prices over $4.60 in Pennsylvania.
Dave McCormick

The Fed will have to consider the shock. The key is that the conflict will end 'relatively quickly', and when it does, energy markets will adjust relatively quickly. The Fed will have to look past this moment, but it's putting complexity into the Fed's decision-making.
Joe Mathieu

Asks if President Trump will give Warsh space to figure things out in his first couple of months.
Dave McCormick

Trump picked a guy he trusts and thinks has the ability to drive the Fed in the right direction. He won't be given a performance review in the first 60 days. Trump knows the chairman will have to get his bearings and build consensus.
Joe Mathieu

Asks if McCormick supports suspending the federal gas tax.
Dave McCormick

Would be supportive of a temporary gas tax holiday to give relief to people living paycheck-to-paycheck. It should be sunset as the US exits the Iran conflict and energy prices stabilize, to avoid it becoming a permanent Washington program.
Joe Mathieu

Asks if the China summit is a trade mission and if actual deals on chips or other things will be announced.
Dave McCormick

China is our primary adversary and we are in a battle for global leadership. With that context, diplomacy to manage the relationship is in our interests. They will discuss Iran (China is highly dependent on Iran for oil and sells weapons to Iran), AI (managing the profound change with the other biggest innovative country), and trade/investment (soybeans, rare earth metals where the US is 70-80% dependent on China).
Joe Mathieu

Asks if Warsh supports the stablecoin bill (Clarity Act) and if community bankers are happy.
Dave McCormick

Not everyone is happy, but they've resolved the stickiest issue: rewards on activity-based, not deposit-like. The compromise gives consumer protection and allows community banks to build stablecoin positions. Expects a strong markup.
Joe Mathieu

Asks if the China trip is a trade mission and if actual deals on chips or other items will be announced.
Dave McCormick

China is our primary adversary. But diplomacy is needed. On Iran, China and the U.S. have an alignment of interest to get the Strait resolved; China is highly dependent on Iran for oil. On AI, the revolution is moving fast, and they need to manage it responsibly. On trade, expects deals on soybeans (affects PA farmers) and rare earth metals (U.S. is 70-80% dependent on China). Needs a reciprocal trade relationship.

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