Oil market outlook and inventory depletion (with Haslinda Amin)

11/13/2025 8:41:46 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.08%	+0.54%

Asks if the oil market will get tighter from here.

Haslinda Amin

Vandana Hari

Markets have already tightened. Net loss in global supply is about 14-15 million barrels per day. The world is eating through stockpiles that cannot be replenished quickly. Need not just Strait of Hormuz flows to normalize, but overall flows to exceed demand significantly.

Expect tighter supplies, more volatility, and lingering uncertainty even if an MOU is signed.

Asks about the state of global inventories.

Haslinda Amin

Vandana Hari

Growing red flags from industry leaders. US weekly inventory data shows commercial stockpiles nearing operationally minimal levels. US SPR has been drained significantly, as have OECD country stockpiles. No talk of another release even during recent price spikes.

Further erosion of the cushion is contingent on how smoothly Strait of Hormuz flows normalize.

Asks about the Chevron CEO's view that oil prices could rise in coming weeks.

Haslinda Amin

Vandana Hari

Expect a knee-jerk selloff on a deal (relief selloff). The market has been desperately waiting for this. But that relief will mask realities: contentious nuclear discussions and the need to refill the inventory hole.

After the initial selloff, the market will turn to mid/long-term realities. Expect higher-for-longer prices with continued volatility.

Asks about China's demand and what it is doing.

Haslinda Amin

Vandana Hari

Chinese crude imports have dropped by 2-4 million barrels per day. Expect China to get back to replenishing inventories. This crisis will have taught Beijing to hold/build inventories.

As prices decline, China will come back to buy. The drop in imports was opportunistic and likely temporary.

Asks at what price China will start buying.

Haslinda Amin

Vandana Hari

Normally China is very price-sensitive, buying when Brent is in the 60s or low 70s. But this time, given that normalization is not expected anytime soon, China may decide stockpiling at relatively higher prices (below $80 into the 70s) is the right thing to do.

Asks about India's demand and potential price hikes.

Haslinda Amin

Vandana Hari

India has seen 3-4 minimal price hikes that haven't made up for refiner losses. If crude goes down, they may pause. Indian demand didn't drop like China's; it suffered a little but will come back. Hot El Niño summer will support domestic fuel demand.

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