Headline Risk Lingers Over Energy Trade as PPI Confirms Inflation Uptrend

Kevin Hincks analyzes hot PPI headline data (driven by energy) but favorable core, noting the market is more focused on escalating US-Iran rhetoric and potential negotiations. He sees dip buying potential after recent S&P/Nasdaq corrections but expects continued choppiness. Crude oil response is muted despite tensions.

Yields

NDX cautious up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT volatile

Oil sideways , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals

USD

Cboe 7.2
Financial infra
Kevin Hincks 6.0

Headline Risk Lingers Over Energy Trade as PPI Confirms Inflation Uptrend

PPI; CPI; energy

ndx

Kevin notes the Nasdaq is up 0.8% pre-market and expects dip buying after a 7.3% correction, but says markets will be 'extremely choppy'.

rut

Kevin describes the overall market as 'extremely choppy and back and forth', which applies broadly to small caps as well.

wti

Crude oil still finds itself starting the day $90.29 still significantly off the recent highs. So the pressure on crude oil is mild but not severe.

15 calls

-11

slightly worse than random

5/27/2026 4:30:24 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+5.47%	-8.20%
5/6/2026 4:34:59 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+7.77%	-11.66%
4/17/2026 4:30:02 PM	short term sharp down	7 days later	+7.54%	-11.32%
1/5/2026 4:30:22 PM	short term up	6 days later	+4.15%	+4.15%
12/15/2025 4:30:49 PM	short term down	6 days later	+4.96%	-4.96%
11/21/2025 4:30:39 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+0.82%	-0.41%
11/13/2025 4:30:38 PM	short term down	5 days later	-1.08%	+1.08%
10/23/2025 4:30:37 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-1.66%	-2.49%
10/22/2025 4:32:31 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-2.65%	-1.33%
10/16/2025 4:30:21 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.67%	-0.83%
10/13/2025 4:30:13 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.30%	+1.15%
9/10/2025 4:47:58 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+3.45%	-1.72%
9/2/2025 4:29:04 PM	short term up	5 days later	-2.67%	-2.67%
8/19/2025 4:30:52 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+2.52%	+1.26%
8/8/2025 4:30:21 PM	short term down	7 days later	-0.84%	+0.84%

Show all 15 wti results

Introduces the segment, noting both CPI and PPI were hot, and asks for takeaways on the PPI data.

Diane
Kevin Hincks

PPI headline was hot (1.1% MoM, 6.5% YoY) driven by a 10.7% jump in energy, but core PPI was favorable (0.4% MoM, 4.9% YoY). The market is reacting more to President Trump's statements than to this data.

Jobless claims at 229k still indicate a strong labor market. PPI is the fourth most important inflation reading.
Notes President Trump posted about plans to hit Iran hard, but futures are not selling off, suggesting dip buying at the open.

Diane
Kevin Hincks

US-Iran rhetoric is escalating after US hit Iranian targets overnight. President Trump threatened to take Kharg Island, Iran's energy hub. However, crude oil futures are muted, possibly due to an underreported story of 200 commercial ships safely moving 100 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz.

High rhetoric often means negotiations are happening behind the scenes. The S&P 500 is down 4.8% and Nasdaq down 7.3% from highs, creating dip-buying potential. Markets will remain extremely choppy.
Asks if today is all about headline risk versus inflation, noting Iranian state media targeted Elon Musk's companies.

Diane
Kevin Hincks

Yes, the market is now focused on headlines and breaking news, not PPI. The US striking Iran was not a shock as negotiations were stalling.

Crude oil at $90.29 is still significantly off recent highs, showing a muted response. Futures are rallying after a 4.8% S&P and 7.3% Nasdaq correction.

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