AI capex is driving global growth and equity markets, offsetting inflation and geopolitical risks. The Fed is unlikely to cut until March next year unless inflation worsens. The US economy is resilient due to AI, but distributional stress exists. The Bank of England is further from easing than the ECB.
explicit
implicit
implicit
Metals
implicit
UBS
8.0
Investment Bank $4300.00B
Arend Kapteyn 8.5
Investment Bank $4300.00B
Arend Kapteyn 8.5
6/4/2026 1:48:35 PM
dxy
With the Fed on hold and the ECB cutting, the dollar is likely to remain rangebound in the near term, as the guest does not signal any strong directional move for the USD.
ndx
AI capex is driving equity markets and the economy. The guest says we are in the 'early middle innings' of the AI buildout, implying continued upside for tech-heavy indices like the NDX, though with caution about potential competition from China.
rut
The guest highlights distributional stress and weakness in the broader economy outside of AI. The RUT, being more exposed to domestic cyclicals and small caps, is likely to remain rangebound given the mixed labor market and inflation concerns.
wti
The guest notes that the conviction levels on when inventory depletion becomes binding have gone down, and the cliff effect is being pushed out. This suggests uncertainty and potential volatility in oil prices depending on Middle East developments.
yields
The Fed will do nothing until March next year. The Bank of England is multiple meetings away from doing anything.
| 5/14/2026 1:35:31 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.57% | +1.28% |
| 5/6/2026 7:59:28 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.03% | -1.01% |
| 4/29/2026 8:23:42 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.59% | -0.30% |
| 3/16/2026 8:12:49 AM | long term up | 62 days later | +10.02% | +10.02% |
| 3/12/2026 2:13:06 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.65% | -0.65% |
| 12/17/2025 11:29:24 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.53% | -0.27% |
| 11/17/2025 8:30:14 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.19% | -1.19% |
| 11/13/2025 7:13:56 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -0.96% | +0.96% |
| 11/7/2025 2:24:31 AM | medium term sharp down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.51% |
| 10/22/2025 6:37:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.85% | -0.93% |
| 9/16/2025 1:12:43 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -0.82% |
| 9/11/2025 7:54:53 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.66% | -0.33% |
| 9/10/2025 1:15:07 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.37% | -1.18% |
| 9/9/2025 6:42:19 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.88% | -1.44% |
| 8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.00% | +2.50% |
| 8/20/2025 5:59:24 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.88% | +3.44% |
| 8/20/2025 1:53:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.88% | +3.44% |
| 8/20/2025 10:38:49 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.88% | +3.44% |
