FX and bond market analysis with Majabin Zaman (with Joumanna Bercetche)

4/10/2026 10:20:42 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+0.10%	-0.05%
2/2/2026 5:53:19 AM	long term down	62 days later	+2.61%	-2.61%
11/27/2025 9:58:08 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.04%	+0.52%

4/10/2026 10:20:42 AM	medium term down	21 days later	+3.47%	-3.47%

Rising bond yields impacting FX; dollar at highest in six weeks; Brent near $111/barrel.

Joumanna Bercetche

Majabin Zaman

Dollar strengthened on higher yields and rate hike expectations but cautious on dollar; difficult for Fed to out-hawk other G10 central banks; longer term see dollar weaker.

Short term could see dollar strength but trend constrained.

Equities reacting to rising bond yields and geopolitical situation; due for correction; how does this impact USD?

Joumanna Bercetche

Majabin Zaman

Near term depends on US data; entering environment where good news is bad news; stronger growth data leads to tighter policy expectations; Fed easing expectations diminished for now; any news on Strait of Hormuz reopening would weaken dollar.

US holding up OK doesn't get in way of Fed hiking.

Which currency pairs most sensitive to energy shocks and rising oil prices?

Joumanna Bercetche

Majabin Zaman

Japanese yen and sterling most sensitive; both energy importers exposed to higher oil prices; UK has political risks; Japan has fiscal uncertainty with PM suggesting more budget and debt funding for cost of living support.

That's not helping the yen and lending support to higher Japanese long yields.

Sterling was largely immune to rising gilt yields until recently; how much political premium should be factored in?

Joumanna Bercetche

Majabin Zaman

Political risk premium already embedded in sterling for quite some time; fiscal uncertainty from potential government change adds downside; even without political issues, UK economy not looking amazing - unemployment moving higher, wages coming off; BOE likely to remain on hold, possibly cut towards end of year.

More room for BOE to remain on hold for now.

Euro facing headwinds from higher oil prices and growth shock; UK has political premiums; which wins out?

Joumanna Bercetche

Majabin Zaman

Euro sterling is proxy to play European political risk; Europe also energy importer but in better state; Europe has lower rates so more scope to hike if needed; sterling still at pretty high rate levels.

Europe had huge fiscal program rollout last year.

SignalTube