Cantrill: Investors are asking if escalation is needed to de-escalate conflict

wti

The interviewee states that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, PIMCO's commodities team expects it will take 'weeks, if not maybe two months for the oil industry to actually normalize because of the sort of supply shut in'. This implies continued supply constraints and upward price pressure in the medium term, but the tone is analytical rather than emphatically bullish, warranting 'cautious up'.

yields

it does probably mean that we have steeper yield curve for the foreseeable future. The reasoning is based on persistently high deficits (6-7% of GDP), increased spending (defense, potential stimulus), and large refunds (~$160B), with no political will to fix the problem. This points to higher long-term yields.

19 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

4/6/2026 10:30:45 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	-1.06%	-0.53%
3/25/2026 12:26:08 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.03%	+1.52%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.45%	-1.23%
11/12/2025 4:29:08 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.34%	+0.67%
11/5/2025 12:18:17 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-2.32%	+1.16%
10/24/2025 5:08:46 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+2.73%	-1.36%
10/15/2025 10:59:52 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
10/2/2025 6:11:21 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	-3.11%	+4.66%
9/30/2025 9:58:43 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.36%	+1.36%
9/17/2025 10:02:22 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%
9/16/2025 9:04:34 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+1.64%	-2.47%
9/12/2025 11:53:46 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.17%	-1.59%
9/11/2025 5:44:45 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.66%	-0.33%
8/22/2025 6:06:13 PM	short term down	8 days later	+0.05%	-0.05%
8/12/2025 10:24:43 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+2.43%	-3.65%

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