SpaceX IPO and AI capex (with Francine Lacqua)

SpaceX IPO is ambitious but burning cash; AI hyperscaler capex is the key theme, with infrastructure plays like high-bandwidth memory and electricity generators offering credible growth. Tariffs are inflationary but not a game-changer; Middle East tensions could spike refined product prices.

implicit

RUT

explicit

Metals

USD

Plurimi Wealth 5.0
Wealth Manager
Patrick Armstrong 8.5

SpaceX IPO and AI capex (with Francine Lacqua)

ndx

Hyperscaler capex theme is key; stocks benefiting have same multiples as last year, suggesting cautious optimism.

wti

Refined products (jet fuel, diesel) could spike if Strait of Hormuz not open by June.

2 calls

-32

frequent wrong calls with noticeable losses

3/19/2026 3:44:52 PM	short term up	5 days later	-8.14%	-8.14%

yields

Tariffs are inflationary, AI spend is inflationary short-term, creating upward pressure on yields.

SpaceX IPO is huge, breaking from traditional IPO process.

Francine Lacqua
Patrick Armstrong

SpaceX needs IPO due to high cash burn; net losses almost as high as revenues.

Ambitious targets but burning through money; need to invest in AI infrastructure.
Patrick Armstrong

Not getting involved in SpaceX IPO; no revenues, no free cash flows, no earnings.

Fascinating process with narrow free float and passive demand, but not attractive.
Patrick Armstrong

SpaceX IPO can behave like a short squeeze due to passive demand; price set by forced buying, not fundamentals.

2.5% of Nasdaq means forced selling of other mega caps, creating unintended pressure.
Patrick Armstrong

Key theme is buying everything where hyperscalers allocate capital; capex to hit $1 trillion.

High-bandwidth memory, processors, electricity generators have incredible revenue growth and are not expensive on future earnings.
Patrick Armstrong

AI spend is inflationary short-term, competing for resources like electricity.

Productivity goes up in future, but short-term prices rise; stocks benefiting have same multiples as last year despite price increases.
Patrick Armstrong

Tariffs are inflationary and stagflationary if retaliation occurs; pendulum shifted to protectionism.

Not a game-changer but a friction that lowers profit margins and creates inflationary pressures.
Patrick Armstrong

Earnings season was great but skewed; only hyperscaler-linked companies had incredible earnings.

Rest of sectors were strong but normal; tariffs will subdue growth below potential.
Patrick Armstrong

Middle East: Strait of Hormuz must open by June or refined products (jet fuel, diesel) will spike.

Oil inventory in wrong places; refined product is the real issue. Markets complacent about peace deal.
Patrick Armstrong

Short US airlines; long European refiners who have pricing power and inelastic demand.

Refiners can set price and have incredible profit margins, hedging equity portfolio.

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