Gundlach warns private credit is a 'Wild West' with trust eroding, citing large markdowns and potential for higher redemptions. Defaults are occurring, masked by staggered markdowns. He dismisses bailouts for wealthy investors and criticizes Treasury's short-duration issuance. Recommends 20% cash, 20% commodities, anticipating higher yields and no rate cuts.
Yields
NDX
Oil
Metals
USD
Doubleline
8.5
Asset Manager $130.00B
Jeffrey Gundlach 9.0
Asset Manager $130.00B
Jeffrey Gundlach 9.0
5/8/2026 12:39:36 AM
- gold → 4000
dxy
Gundlach's bullish gold call and discussion of potential Treasury debt restructuring (which would undermine USD confidence) imply a cautious view on the dollar. He also mentions the possibility of yield curve control, which typically weakens the currency.
metals
I said it's going to go above 4,000 by the end of this year 2025, and it went to 3,500. I would buy gold with both hands if it goes to 3,500. I would take a first shot at it at about 4,200.
| 3/23/2026 10:31:11 PM | long term cautious up | 61 days later | +2.56% | +1.28% |
| 12/10/2025 11:31:27 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.12% | +1.12% |
| 10/11/2025 12:16:44 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.16% | +4.74% |
ndx
Gundlach recommends 20% cash because markets are 'very, very high' and yields will rise, implying a cautious view on equities. He also notes that the 'public credit at risk' argument is not currently visible, but could apply in the future, suggesting downside risk for risk assets including NDX.
rut
Gundlach's warning about private credit stress and potential defaults could disproportionately affect smaller companies (RUT) that rely on private credit. His cautious equity stance and 20% cash recommendation also imply downside risk for small caps.
wti
Gundlach likes commodities broadly (20% position), noting the Bloomberg Commodity Index is at a new high and under upward pressure from oil prices. This implies a cautiously bullish view on WTI.
yields
I think they're going to continue to go up, even if there's a recession. In fact, I think if there's a recession, they'll go up even faster.
| 5/8/2026 12:33:19 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 5/7/2026 10:50:16 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.09% | +1.04% |
| 3/23/2026 10:31:11 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.14% | -1.14% |
| 3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.43% | -0.72% |
| 12/10/2025 11:31:27 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.53% | +0.53% |
| 12/10/2025 11:14:38 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.53% | +0.53% |
| 10/29/2025 10:16:46 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/11/2025 12:16:44 AM | medium term cautious down | 22 days later | +1.36% | -0.68% |
| 9/22/2025 6:00:06 PM | long term sharp up | 62 days later | -1.99% | -2.99% |
| 9/18/2025 12:05:31 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.19% | +0.10% |
