We expect a compromise deal on Iran can be reached because both sides want to end the war and China plays an important role. Risk may be smaller than feared; US inflation may be lower at year-end. We are cautiously optimistic on US equities: broad market participation is positive (advance-decline lines at record highs), tech contributes 50% of market cap with solid earnings growth, and energy is a tailwind. Asia tech is attractive with 4-5x earnings growth for memory chip companies and relatively lower valuations.
Since the start of the war, S&P 500 earnings estimates have been revised up 2.3%, half from tech and half from energy. For Asia, investors are looking for solid earnings growth and the AI model capability continues to improve.