We think Powell wants to cut and has the votes. That takes policy to a neutral level. Our estimate of where neutral rates in the US is much higher than where the Fed thinks it is.

So we'd be a little bit more cautious on the degree to which they can cut after that.

Thus far, the market's been concerned about the soft patch in the US economy. We think that primarily reflects a delayed impact from trade uncertainty earlier this year. As we go into next year we'll see some recovery.

If that's associated with an expectation that Fed policy is now in a pretty good place, it means we only expect the Fed to cut rates once more in March.

Monetary policy is less restrictive now than the Fed thinks because neutral rates are higher than the Fed says they are.

If one believes the Fed are easing a little bit more dovish than they otherwise would to take out some of the political pressure from Washington, then it means you create an upside risk to inflation because monetary policy becomes too accommodative.

Bearish on GBP. The medium-term pitch for the pound is not good. Political uncertainty and we think the market should price lower terminal policy rates from the Bank of England.

Right now the markets only expecting two more cuts. We think it's likely we'll get those two cuts in December and then early next year, but then the risk into 2027 is they cut rates twice more.

We like duration in the UK compared to other markets. Lower terminal Bank of England expectations combined with lower supply can support UK duration.

We expect supply next year to fall perhaps as much as 50 billion, which is a lot for the UK. It's about 20%.

We think the next move from the ECB will be a hike, not a cut. That's quite different to market pricing. The hike is a 2027 story.

European growth next year can surprise materially on the upside. The market's expecting growth of about 1%. We think it'll be 1.5%. The key driver is German fiscal expectations.

Into the end of the year it makes sense that we see some of the most consensus and popular positions pare back. We saw that in October with gold, in November with tech/AI-linked names.

Heading into next year, the theme is very much still a buying opportunity. The selloff is first and foremost a reflection of positioning. Our metrics suggest positioning is now quite clean. We think there's plenty of scope for a year-end rally.