AI's productivity gains are a net positive for employment and growth, mirroring past tech shocks. However, near-term inflation is rising due to AI capex (semis, data centers, energy) and non-AI factors (oil, tariffs, immigration). This pushes Fed cuts to 2027, creating a challenging environment for markets. Tech (NDX) faces mixed signals: long-term AI tailwinds vs. short-term rate/inflation headwinds.
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Metals
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Apollo 9.0
Asset Manager $671.00B
Torsten Slok 9.0
AI productivity and labor market impact (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz)
5/5/2026 6:12:22 PM
ndx
Slok's view that AI will create more jobs and drive productivity gains over the medium term is positive for tech companies that are leaders in AI, which dominate the NDX. However, the short-term inflationary pressures and higher-for-longer rates could weigh on valuations.
yields
The next Fed cut is likely in 2027. The sequencing is critical. Inflation is going up because of oil prices, tariffs, and immigration restrictions.
10 calls
+4
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
4/3/2026 7:31:50 PM medium term up 21 days later +0.02% +0.02%
3/27/2026 8:49:47 PM medium term up 21 days later -2.12% -2.12%
3/27/2026 7:30:29 PM medium term up 21 days later -2.12% -2.12%
12/23/2025 11:03:06 PM long term up 61 days later -2.59% -2.59%
10/28/2025 5:15:14 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.60% +0.80%
10/13/2025 6:26:53 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.09% +1.04%
10/9/2025 2:13:08 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later +1.04% +1.56%
8/29/2025 2:18:36 PM short term sharp down 6 days later -5.40% +8.10%
8/15/2025 11:30:11 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -6.80% +3.40%
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