Unprecedented environment of shortfall in copper, long anticipated but brought forward by high-profile interruptions; copper market in shortage of 300k-800k tons this year. Aluminum similarly seeing unusual shortage in supply and generally strong demand.

Tricky to forecast exactly where copper can go because no one can make up that supply; you have to see substitution/alternatives.

Gold/silver driven by debasement trade, dollar concern; that doesn't necessarily translate to courting of copper. Copper responds to different demand dynamics.

There's been bit of fund flows/ETF appetite for commodities in general, but more risk: if you see big run-up in copper/aluminum/nickel/iron, you get replacement/substitution, which you don't necessarily get in gold.

Pretty much that simple in short term: price goes up, they benefit, no corresponding increase in miner costs. Medium-term: if sustained price of copper/aluminum is so much higher than alternatives, you start to see substitution (copper for silver in solar, aluminum for copper, steel/PVC for aluminum).

Some have already reported; December quarter reporting has nothing to do with prices we're seeing going forward; market is anticipating that. Starting to see impact of precious metals spill over into base metals miners, lowering costs, boosting profits.

Example: iron ore miner Valley has bit of gold/precious metals that starts to move needle.

Steel in US is different animal because responding to Section 232 tariffs which may stick longer than market anticipated. Steel prices might stay for longer but might have less upside, might be stickier. You can get more confident in staying power of steel because not just about Chinese speculator; there's actual support for steel (perhaps replacing aluminum). Domestic market responded with supply; tariffs are here to stay.

There's been big increase in capacity in recent years; US could be self-sufficient in steel very soon.