Greg Peters and Ira Jersey analyze the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh. Key themes: inflation remains well above target despite falling oil prices, the easing bias is likely to be removed from the statement, and Warsh faces a difficult credibility challenge balancing independence against Trump's pressure for lower rates. The labor market is firming, making rate cuts hard to justify.
explicit
NDX
Oil
Metals
USD
PGIM
7.8
Asset Manager $1400.00B
Greg Peters 8.8
Asset Manager $1400.00B
Greg Peters 8.8
6/17/2026 12:17:31 AM
rut
The K-shaped economy means lower-income consumers (more represented in small caps) are struggling, while the overall economy is solid. This divergence suggests rangebound performance for small caps.
yields
It's really hard to construct an argument that rates should be lower here from the Fed.
| 5/29/2026 12:40:23 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +1.72% | +0.86% |
| 5/8/2026 4:06:17 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +1.47% | -0.74% |
| 3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 1/7/2026 1:57:49 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.63% | +0.81% |
| 1/5/2026 10:58:21 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.81% | +0.81% |
| 12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.07% | -0.07% |
