Global oil market will be 'safer,' says NEC Director Kevin Hassett

Kevin Hassett argues that the reopening of the Straits and increased pipeline capacity will flood the market with oil, pushing WTI prices down in the medium term. He sees the Fed as unlikely to overreact to a temporary oil-driven inflation blip, and expects another strong jobs number.

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Global oil market will be 'safer,' says NEC Director Kevin Hassett

WTI

wti

Once traffic is really moving, we go back to more than 100 ships a day, then you're gonna see prices come down from there because there's gonna be so much oil pouring out.

5 calls

slightly better than random

6/22/2026 4:23:27 PM	short term down	6 days later	-3.36%	+3.36%
6/18/2026 6:09:50 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-8.10%	+4.05%
6/5/2026 7:48:07 PM	short term down	7 days later	-11.56%	+11.56%
5/11/2026 6:30:22 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	+6.34%	+3.17%
3/6/2026 8:02:31 PM	medium term down	22 days later	+13.18%	-13.18%

Show all 5 wti results

Oil is under $70 again; with the ceasefire news, can we expect it to stay at $69 or go lower?

Speaker1
Speaker2

No, I don't think so. Once traffic resumes fully, prices will come down because there will be so much oil pouring out.

Pipelines in Saudi Arabia and UAE were below capacity before the war; they've found ways to operate closer to capacity. There's been a big global inventory drawdown. The macro picture is that the Straits will open, Iran won't get a nuclear weapon, and the global oil market will be safer with more oil than ever.
Core inflation doesn't include oil, so how much does lower oil help? What is the actual underlying inflation rate and how do you bring it down?

Speaker1
Speaker2

We've just had an oil shock. Top-line inflation moves way more than core, but core does move a little (e.g., transport costs to Walmart). The Fed is least likely to overreact to a temporary oil-driven blip.

History shows monetary policy mistakes when people overreact to a temporary oil shock. My friend Kevin Warsh is well aware of that history. This Fed is the least likely to make such a mistake.
Jobs number on Thursday — were you aware?

Speaker1
Speaker2

Yes, it's a rare Thursday jobs day. All real-time indicators point to another strong number like last month.

We'll brief the President Wednesday night.

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