Rob Thummel argues oil is fairly priced at ~$80 based on a 50/50 probability scenario: either inventories continue to deplete pushing prices to $100, or normalization of supply (pre-war oversupply) brings oil to $60. The market has already priced in a likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ben Cook highlights that even with a formal signing, full restoration of Strait of Hormuz transit will take weeks to months, with cargoes not reaching import markets until September. Inventories will continue drawing in the interim. Any negotiation hiccup could send prices higher, justifying a $5-10 risk premium.