Oil price fair at $80 with 50/50 risk of $60 or $100 (with Unnamed anchor)

Rob Thummel argues oil is fairly priced at ~$80 based on a 50/50 probability scenario: either inventories continue to deplete pushing prices to $100, or normalization of supply (pre-war oversupply) brings oil to $60. The market has already priced in a likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Rob Thummel 8.0

Oil price fair at $80 with 50/50 risk of $60 or $100 (with Unnamed anchor)

wti

50% probability we get to $60

5 calls

+13

slightly better than random

4/9/2026 4:01:43 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+8.80%	-4.40%
3/5/2026 4:00:01 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-4.02%	-2.01%
2/19/2026 10:00:35 PM	long term cautious up	60 days later	+38.77%	+19.39%
12/11/2025 10:00:16 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-0.21%	-0.10%
9/2/2025 6:23:01 PM	long term down	61 days later	-4.56%	+4.56%

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Oil has pulled back to three-month lows; questions whether market is pricing in a smooth Strait of Hormuz reopening prematurely.

Unnamed anchor
Rob Thummel

Oil is fairly priced at ~$80 based on a 50/50 probability: 50% chance inventories continue to deplete (pushing to $100), 50% chance supply normalizes to pre-war oversupply (pushing to $60).

Global oil and refined product inventories have declined significantly. The expected value calculation of the two scenarios yields ~$80.
Asks Rob to elaborate on the $100 and $60 scenarios.

Unnamed anchor
Rob Thummel

The $100 scenario requires continued inventory depletion without rapid supply normalization; the $60 scenario requires a return to pre-war oversupply conditions.

Duration of inventory drawdown is key—if it persists, prices rise; if supply-demand rebalances quickly, prices fall.

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