Thummel: Energy Volatility Hinges on Strait of Hormuz Traffic, Investing in Infrastructure

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Rob Thummel 8.0

Thummel: Energy Volatility Hinges on Strait of Hormuz Traffic, Investing in Infrastructure

WTI

wti

we could see oil prices really quickly move obviously from the hundreds to the to the 90s and then to the 80s and then maybe potentially back into the 70s at some point in time... there's probably lower oil prices to come Based on expectation that Strait of Hormuz shipping will normalize in coming months, removing $20-25 geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in prices. Requires ceasefire holding and consistent ship movement.

5 calls

+13

slightly better than random

3/5/2026 4:00:01 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-4.02%	-2.01%
2/19/2026 10:00:35 PM	long term cautious up	60 days later	+38.77%	+19.39%
12/11/2025 10:00:16 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-0.21%	-0.10%
9/2/2025 6:23:01 PM	long term down	61 days later	-4.56%	+4.56%

Show all 4 wti results

Asks about interpretation of recent oil price volatility and sharp pullback followed by upswing.

Diane King Hall
Rob Thummel

Attributes oil volatility to uncertainties around ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz access, doesn't think it will go away soon but believes oil prices will normalize long-term.

Futures curve reflects much lower oil prices in future, which he agrees with.
Asks what needs to happen for oil to settle in 80s if ceasefire holds.

Diane King Hall
Rob Thummel

Needs to see ships moving through Strait of Hormuz regularly, back to normalized traffic, which is probably months away.

Once consistency removes uncertainty, oil prices could quickly move from 100s to 90s, then 80s, potentially back to 70s.
Asks whether energy stocks track oil prices closely or if company fundamentals matter more.

Diane King Hall
Rob Thummel

Fundamentals matter more, energy sector is best performing in S&P 500, investors are underinvested in energy.

Energy is really important, natural gas is important, most investors are underallocated to energy sector.
Asks what percentage allocation investors should have to energy.

Diane King Hall
Rob Thummel

Should be close to 10% of portfolios versus current 2-4% S&P weighting.

Focuses on natural gas and infrastructure tied to AI development, US energy secure, setting global demand records, US exports will rise.
Asks if $100 oil is a headwind or still manageable for broader economy.

Diane King Hall
Rob Thummel

Energy prices not quite a headwind yet but getting there, wants Strait opened to reduce uncertainty and get oil to manageable levels.

Important that oil price doesn't stunt economic growth globally and domestically.
Asks base case for Strait of Hormuz movement and ceasefire unwind timeline.

Diane King Hall
Rob Thummel

Thinks ships can start moving through Strait, then oil prices move lower.

Plenty of global oil supply, just needs transportation. Currently has $20-25 geopolitical risk embedded in $100 oil price. There's probably lower oil prices to come.
Asks about infrastructure as underappreciated play within energy.

Diane King Hall
Rob Thummel

Energy infrastructure offers best risk-adjusted returns in energy sector maybe overall market.

US has largest energy infrastructure network, helps keep prices lower. Offers high dividend yields, free cash flow, dividend growth, resilient network. Difficult to build new pipelines increases value of existing infrastructure.

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