Jeffrey Rosenberg warns against overplaying the initial yield curve flattening reaction. He argues the real hawkish signal may be on the balance sheet, not just rates. Warsh's comments on transmission mechanisms and the source of uneven restrictiveness hint at changing the ample reserves system, which would reduce term premium support. This could be a first-order effect for bonds.
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Asset Manager $10500.00B
Jeffrey Rosenberg 9.5
Asset Manager $10500.00B
Jeffrey Rosenberg 9.5
6/18/2026 12:17:55 AM
ndx
The Fed may be less supportive... but it's occurring in an environment where the contribution... of the Fed's role is much more secondary to what we're seeing in the real economy, right? And that's the AI impact, the incredible amount of capital expenditures, the incredible amount of earnings growth.
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yields
Rosenberg argues the real hawkish signal is on the balance sheet (reducing term premium support), which would lead to higher long-term yields over time, not the initial curve flattening.
