Keith Lerner argues the recent market action is a healthy rotation, not short covering. Tech remains a core long-term position, but money is rotating into financials, small caps, and industrials. Lower oil and a resilient economy support the broadening trade. He expects the Fed to be more dovish than the market prices, and sees no rate hike this year.

Victoria Coates analyzes the Iran deal and Strait reopening. She notes the 20 million barrels/day through the Strait matter more to Europe/Japan than the US. She expects Iran to try to charge tolls, but the US will resist. She sees the Lebanon/Hezbollah issue as resolvable, and notes European allies' military limitations in deploying assets.

Dan Ives analyzes the Anthropic-White House tug-of-war over AI model access. He argues the issue is global and cannot be contained to the US, making it a slippery slope. He sees the AI revolution in the third inning, with winners defined by strategic moves over the next 12 months. He views OpenAI's losses as a near-term investment phase that investors need to look through.

Betsy Duke expects a complete rewrite of the FOMC statement, not just a tweak. She believes Warsh will focus on communication, possibly eliminating the dot plot. She maintains Warsh is still a hawk who wants to be a great Fed chair, focused on controlling inflation. She notes Michelle Smith staying on as chief of staff is important for continuity.

Torsten Slok expects a significant shift in Fed communication under Warsh, possibly reducing forward guidance and the dot plot. This would introduce uncertainty but give the Fed more flexibility. He notes the strong economy (AI boom, fiscal stimulus) argues for a more hawkish stance, but lower oil helps. He sees no signs of the economy slowing down.

Andrew Hollenhorst argues lower oil gives the Fed more flexibility and reverses the inflationary pressure. He expects Warsh to remove the easing bias but in a dovish way, citing uncertainty. He still sees three cuts this year, starting in September, contingent on softer labor market data. He notes AI investment is inflationary now but could be disinflationary later via productivity gains.