Andrew Hollenhorst argues lower oil gives the Fed more flexibility and reverses the inflationary pressure. He expects Warsh to remove the easing bias but in a dovish way, citing uncertainty. He still sees three cuts this year, starting in September, contingent on softer labor market data. He notes AI investment is inflationary now but could be disinflationary later via productivity gains.
explicit
implicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Citigroup
8.5
Investment Bank $1800.00B
Andrew Hollenhorst 8.0
Investment Bank $1800.00B
Andrew Hollenhorst 8.0
6/16/2026 6:55:39 PM
ndx
Hollenhorst sees AI investment as a driver of future productivity, which is positive for tech. However, near-term inflationary pressure from AI could keep the Fed cautious, limiting upside.
wti
Energy prices now down significantly this morning, likely to continue to fall. Gasoline is going to follow oil prices lower.
| 5/20/2026 8:07:16 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.56% | +3.28% |
| 5/8/2026 10:00:56 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -6.03% | -3.01% |
| 5/7/2026 6:00:45 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -6.83% | -10.25% |
| 4/10/2026 1:26:19 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -14.34% |
| 3/4/2026 9:38:13 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +11.49% | -11.49% |
| 1/14/2026 9:07:22 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.94% | +1.94% |
| 10/22/2025 9:54:16 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.65% | +1.33% |
yields
The only reason we are talking about hikes is because oil prices went higher... this inflationary pressure has now reversed and become a deflationary pressure.
| 5/20/2026 8:07:16 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -1.01% |
| 5/20/2026 8:07:16 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -1.01% |
| 5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.96% | -0.96% |
| 4/30/2026 11:03:58 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.75% |
| 4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 3/25/2026 10:44:32 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.38% | +1.19% |
| 3/12/2026 12:07:11 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.61% | -0.30% |
| 1/28/2026 1:50:23 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -3.50% | +3.50% |
| 1/21/2026 12:47:18 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.81% | -1.81% |
| 12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -0.10% | +0.10% |
| 10/24/2025 8:04:31 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.40% | -1.70% |
| 9/11/2025 11:25:08 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
| 9/4/2025 1:39:08 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.32% | +1.32% |
| 9/2/2025 9:41:20 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.92% | +1.96% |
| 9/2/2025 8:40:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.92% | -3.92% |
