Market has done the Fed's work; mortgage rates already price in 2 hikes. Recent bond rout was a 3-act play: inflation, real yield repricing (growth/AI), then convexity flows. The trade now is clipping coupons (2Y withstands 250bps selloff) and buying "screamingly cheap" munis. Avoid credit; spreads are uncompensated. Prefer 7Y nominals to TIPS. The catalyst for a rally to 4.25% in the 10Y is a geopolitical deal that breaks oil below $90.
explicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Morgan Stanley
8.4
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Michelle Kunja 8.5
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Michelle Kunja 8.5
5/21/2026 8:12:16 PM
yields
If the war ended and oil goes under $90, the 10-year comes in to approximately 4.25%.
| 3/28/2026 12:19:11 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 12/23/2025 1:36:10 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.48% | +0.24% |
| 12/18/2025 1:46:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.39% |
| 12/8/2025 1:14:06 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.67% | +0.84% |
| 12/2/2025 9:28:55 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.76% | -1.38% |
| 11/28/2025 6:46:36 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +1.78% | -1.78% |
| 11/25/2025 12:34:15 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +3.78% | -3.78% |
| 11/22/2025 1:57:04 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.57% | -1.78% |
| 11/14/2025 8:08:25 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -2.30% | +1.15% |
| 11/12/2025 1:48:25 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.13% |
| 11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.73% | +1.86% |
| 11/3/2025 5:11:21 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.25% | +0.62% |
| 10/21/2025 3:40:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 9/24/2025 2:05:49 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 9/17/2025 8:50:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/8/2025 7:17:58 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.98% | +0.49% |
| 9/4/2025 5:07:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.10% | -1.05% |
| 8/12/2025 6:27:35 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.43% | -1.22% |
| 8/5/2025 10:59:28 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.90% | -0.90% |
| 8/5/2025 2:12:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.26% | -0.63% |
