Stuart Paul expects 95k job gains and 4.3% unemployment for May. He argues the labor market is 'treading water'—headline hiring is narrow, concentrated in healthcare and professional services, not cyclical. Real wage growth is weak, and inflation risks are skewed to the downside as a cool labor market will keep a lid on core inflation.

Kelsey Berro expects the May payrolls report won't help the Fed, which remains focused on energy-driven inflation. She notes the Fed has already shifted away from forward guidance, and Kevin Warsh's dislike of the dot plot may not lead to unilateral removal given his stated desire for debate. The market is already data-dependent.

Deborah Cunningham expects no Fed rate movement at all in 2026—neither cuts nor hikes. She anticipates more dissents going forward, as seen in the last meeting with the largest number of dissenters since 2012. The presence of former Chair Powell in the room will still encourage stability.