Kelsey Berro expects the May payrolls report won't help the Fed, which remains focused on energy-driven inflation. She notes the Fed has already shifted away from forward guidance, and Kevin Warsh's dislike of the dot plot may not lead to unilateral removal given his stated desire for debate. The market is already data-dependent.
implicit
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
JPMorgan
9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Kelsey Berro 8.5
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Kelsey Berro 8.5
6/4/2026 11:32:50 PM
wti
The correlation between rates and oil has remained very high, even as this conflict has persisted.
| 5/13/2026 2:55:57 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +3.26% |
| 5/12/2026 8:21:02 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +3.78% |
| 5/12/2026 5:23:45 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +3.78% |
| 5/12/2026 12:00:24 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/11/2026 6:43:48 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -9.81% | -4.90% |
| 5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/5/2026 9:11:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.14% | +1.57% |
| 4/20/2026 6:16:40 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +6.45% | -3.22% |
| 4/9/2026 8:26:09 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +8.80% | -4.40% |
| 3/27/2026 4:46:35 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/16/2026 6:26:04 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -8.40% | -4.20% |
| 3/4/2026 8:50:44 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +3.01% |
| 3/3/2026 2:24:23 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 3/3/2026 11:01:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +26.94% |
yields
Berro notes the correlation between rates and oil remains high, and the Fed is focused on energy-driven inflation, suggesting upward pressure on yields.
