The blockade is an alternative to outright destruction of Iran's energy infrastructure, leaving door open for negotiations. Confident the Strait will reopen either through negotiations or force. Heading into earnings season supports the market with a relatively strong economy.

Goldman reported today, but more bullish on regular banks like BVA and CFG (Citizens First Financial) trading at much lower multiples without credit issues Goldman had.

Normal seasonal pattern: during earnings season you get greed, after earnings season you get fear. With three reasons to be fearful (credit issues, AI concerns, war) and only a 5-6% decline, that's bullish price action supporting 8000 target. After Strait reopens, inflation will come down hard and we'll get three rate cuts after Warsh is brought in as Fed chair.

If Strait stays closed indefinitely and oil stays over 100, we won't reach 8000 but still get to 7400 (21x 27 earnings vs 23x target) — almost 10% upside. US and Canada are most insulated from energy shock due to massive natural gas excesses, lower manufacturing costs, more exports. Base case (Strait opens) is totally fine for US. Recommending tech stocks resilient even with elevated rates.

It's a disaster for Europe but mildly positive in long run for US if Strait remains closed.

Marvell: super cheap stock, trading at half PEG ratio, largest position in ICAP income fund, 180 target, 30x 180 earnings for 2027. Amazon: half retail, trades at 25x earnings vs Walmart at 44x, 300 target, AI negative thesis overdone in March, resilient in down markets due to 50% retail.

Normally would trim after 40-50% gain but haven't trimmed Marvell. Liked Amazon since about 20.

Lockheed Martin: still cheap, 800 target. Even if war resolved, defense budget going higher. Missile business booming for years due to depleted supply needing rebuild. Longer-term play on higher defense spending under Trump administration (three more years). Not a war-mood stock like fertilizer or pure energy companies.

Stock ran up some but has come in quite a bit.

Hopeful Warsh will look at actual market inflation, not imputed inflation. PCE core has imputed calculations for shelter (they make them up). Correcting for that, PCE is already around 2%. Also will look through oil price shock. Confident Warsh will do better job than Powell and get us back to neutral rate.