Chinese Shares Are Top Bet During Iran War: Jefferies

Yields sideways , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX

RUT

Oil up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

Metals sideways , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

USD up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

gold sideways

Jefferies 8.0
Investment Bank $57.00B
Christopher Wood 9.0

Chinese Shares Are Top Bet During Iran War: Jefferies

China

dxy

It's put a short term bit for the US dollar. He directly states the conflict provides a short-term bid for the USD.

3/19/2026 9:28:23 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-0.05%	-0.03%
12/9/2025 1:59:10 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.56%	+0.28%

metals

I believe gold has entered a consolidation period... I view gold as in a trading range between 4-5 and 5-5. And I think that may extend for a period. He cites gold not making a new high on the conflict outbreak as a signal it has peaked for now.

1/14/2026 9:58:52 PM	short term up	5 days later	+2.92%	+2.92%

wti

The interviewee discusses oil at $112 and above $100 for several days. He frames the conflict causing a 'massive increase in energy prices across the globe' as a scenario, and recommends owning energy stocks as a hedge. This implies he sees upward pressure on oil prices while the conflict persists, which he expects to continue in the short term.

12/22/2025 2:33:41 PM	short term down	6 days later	-0.51%	+0.51%

yields

As long as the Treasury bond market remains well behaved... for now, the ten year has been relatively well behaved. He states the Fed won't be forced to tighten if the Treasury market stays well-behaved, indicating an expectation of stability in the near term.

1/2/2026 5:09:52 PM	medium term down	21 days later	+1.15%	-1.15%
12/22/2025 2:33:41 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+0.43%	-0.43%
12/1/2025 8:38:44 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+2.03%	-2.03%
10/16/2025 3:07:34 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.15%	-1.07%
9/3/2025 7:11:49 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-0.69%	+0.69%
8/28/2025 6:44:17 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.38%	+0.38%
8/20/2025 8:30:01 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-6.88%	-3.44%
8/20/2025 8:29:45 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-6.88%	+3.44%
8/20/2025 3:30:11 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-6.88%	+3.44%
8/14/2025 8:32:54 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.51%	+1.76%

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Asks for reaction to overnight market moves given geopolitical developments.

Haslinda
Christopher Wood

Markets have shown remarkable complacency, treating geopolitical events as buying opportunities. The longer the conflict goes on, the bigger the risk to markets. Trump delaying his China trip suggests no backing down soon.

Based on conversations at Jefferies Hong Kong Conference.
Asks how high and for how long oil prices need to stay elevated to trigger a structural re-rating of the US market.

Haslinda
Christopher Wood

Short-term, the conflict is a relative positive for the US market vs. energy-dependent countries and supports the dollar. If the conflict persists with a massive global energy price increase damaging GDP growth, the best equity market to own is Chinese mainland.

China has decent oil reserves, dramatic advances in renewable energy, and almost unlimited access to cheap power. It is light-years ahead of the US in energy, which is the key global sector.
Asks if he buys the dip in China and what looks attractive.

Haslinda
Christopher Wood

Views Chinese stock market as a slow bull market, bottomed in Sept/Oct 2024. Government is preventing boom-bust cycles via pressure on dividends, buybacks, and controlling IPO supply. The 'national team' has started buying again after a correction.

Deflation may be ending; CPI is marginally positive. The Iran conflict could push PPI positive, viewed bullishly by domestic fund managers.
Asks how to position to hedge stagflation if war persists and oil stays above $100.

Haslinda
Christopher Wood

Best hedges: Chinese stocks and energy stocks. Gold is in a consolidation period (trading range $4,500-$5,500) as it didn't make a new high on the conflict outbreak. Gold miners also consolidating due to higher energy costs.

Long-term gold can go much higher as central banks are moving to a de facto gold standard, having bought heavily since 2022.
Asks about gold allocation.

Haslinda
Christopher Wood

Has owned gold for years, had a $3,500 target since 2002. Long-term gold can go much higher due to central bank buying driving a de facto gold standard.
Asks where markets should be if all risks were priced in.

Haslinda
Christopher Wood

Look at VIX, which is well below pandemic and taper tantrum levels. Could return to those levels if conflict worsens. Key issue is potential US troops on ground; markets were hoping for a truce.

Iran's response was predictable given their prior warnings.
Asks if high oil prices will force Fed tightening.

Haslinda
Christopher Wood

Fed may have to acknowledge at some point, but more important is Treasury bond market staying well-behaved. The key central bank now is Bank of Japan, which is behind the curve and should raise rates.

If BOJ doesn't raise, yen risks breaking through 160 vs dollar.

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