Goldilocks, tariff risks, China opportunities (with Anna Edwards, Lizzy Burton)

Yields up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX sideways , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Invesco 8.5
Asset Manager $1000.00B
Ben Gutteridge 7.5

Goldilocks, tariff risks, China opportunities (with Anna Edwards, Lizzy Burton)

ndx

Ben states that the big part of the US market (i.e., mega-cap tech) 'is going sideways' due to free cash flow challenges from high AI investment. This is an implicit near-term view on the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) direction.

yields

If the long end of the yield curve starts moving higher, then that's going to be a problem I think for equities. He explicitly warns that the long end of the yield curve could move higher (i.e., yields rise) if the Supreme Court blocks tariffs, leading to excessive fiscal stimulus and inflation fears. This is a conditional but explicit warning about rising yields.

9 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/3/2025 9:18:48 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.90%	-0.95%
12/1/2025 10:51:32 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+2.10%	-1.05%
10/28/2025 3:52:51 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.60%	-1.60%

Show all 3 yields results

Asks if the Santa rally is all we'll get and about the market outlook.

Anna Edwards
Ben Gutteridge

Positive for 2026 due to resilient growth, fading inflationary pressures, and Fed cuts providing a Goldilocks backdrop for equities.

Job creation is slowing but not falling off a cliff.
Asks the biggest risk to the Goldilocks scenario.

Anna Edwards
Ben Gutteridge

Inflationary concerns are the bigger risk. If the Supreme Court blocks tariffs, the resulting stimulus combined with the 'one big beautiful bill' could be too stimulative and inflationary, frightening the bond market.

Tariffs are deflationary (a tax); removing them is like a tax cut and could overheat an economy that doesn't need it.
Asks about AI bubble fears.

Anna Edwards
Ben Gutteridge

Not a bubble, but the market is more discerning on free cash flow. High investment costs are canceling out for some firms, leading to sideways action in big US tech. Suggests looking elsewhere for opportunity.
Asks where he sees opportunities outside the US.

Lizzy Burton
Ben Gutteridge

Sees opportunities in Asia/China (improving profitability story, anti-involution policy aiding pricing power, buybacks) and in Europe (low unemployment, ECB cuts, fiscal support, German investment).

China's shift from 'common prosperity' to policies limiting competition is enabling pricing power and profit focus.
Asks about European deflationary pressure from China.

Lizzy Burton
Ben Gutteridge

Acknowledges it's a concern, particularly for autos, and expects a policy response from Europe.

Positive on Europe due to low unemployment, ECB cuts, and fiscal support, especially German infrastructure/defense spending.

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