The AI trade is broadening from semis to the physical buildout (power, metals) as hyperscaler CapEx forecasts double to ~$800B. This fuels sticky, broadening inflation (45% of CPI >5%), keeping the Fed hawkish. Bonds are broken as a diversifier; gold is the new ballast. Equities are the only real inflation hedge, with earnings—not multiples—driving returns in US & Asia tech. Stay long real assets and the AI supply chain.
explicit
explicit
RUT
implicit
explicit
explicit
Citigroup
8.4
Investment Bank $1800.00B
Kate Moore 8.5
Investment Bank $1800.00B
Kate Moore 8.5
5/22/2026 8:36:10 AM
dxy
People were less nervous about the US dollar... there was kind of more of the understanding that we may be kind of range bound in the dollar.
| 12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.19% | -0.59% |
| 11/17/2025 9:37:10 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.46% | +0.23% |
metals
Gold is going to be an increasingly important part of the portfolio. I'm quite in love with it at the moment because of what it's been able to do that long duration hasn't been able to do.
| 2/18/2026 7:39:29 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +5.39% | +5.39% |
| 2/2/2026 8:50:45 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.02% | -1.02% |
| 1/29/2026 11:55:11 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.63% | -0.63% |
| 12/15/2025 8:22:43 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +5.42% | +5.42% |
| 10/9/2025 11:58:10 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +8.40% | +8.40% |
| 9/23/2025 7:37:45 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +13.32% | +13.32% |
ndx
I do think equities end the year higher. The AI trade and the macro risk can be somewhat divorced in the near term.
| 5/4/2026 8:42:52 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +4.66% | +2.33% |
| 4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.21% | +3.21% |
| 11/7/2025 10:30:49 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -3.17% | +1.58% |
| 10/28/2025 5:13:47 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.28% |
| 10/28/2025 3:52:52 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.56% |
| 10/24/2025 8:04:31 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 9/23/2025 7:37:45 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.31% | +0.31% |
| 9/8/2025 9:12:11 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +3.24% | +3.24% |
| 9/8/2025 4:30:00 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +1.90% | +0.95% |
| 9/4/2025 1:39:08 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.83% | +0.83% |
| 8/29/2025 9:52:50 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +6.59% | +3.29% |
| 7/22/2025 2:32:12 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.92% | +2.92% |
yields
We expect rates are biased higher both from expected fiscal spend, higher inflation and globally a policy bias towards tightening. It's pretty hard for us to want to add to duration. We remain really underweight in the space.
| 5/12/2026 8:21:02 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +1.58% |
| 4/30/2026 11:03:58 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.75% |
| 4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 3/25/2026 10:44:32 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.38% | +1.19% |
| 3/12/2026 12:07:11 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.61% | -0.30% |
| 1/28/2026 1:50:23 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -3.50% | +3.50% |
| 1/21/2026 12:47:18 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.81% | -1.81% |
| 12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -0.10% | +0.10% |
| 10/24/2025 8:04:31 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.40% | -1.70% |
| 9/11/2025 11:25:08 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
| 9/4/2025 1:39:08 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.32% | +1.32% |
| 9/2/2025 9:41:20 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.92% | +1.96% |
| 9/2/2025 8:40:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.92% | -3.92% |
