Tchir: 3% to 5% Stock Pullback Likely, Stay Overweight on Energy

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energy stocks sharp up

Academy Securities 6.2
Government Agency
Peter Tchir 8.0

Tchir: 3% to 5% Stock Pullback Likely, Stay Overweight on Energy

yields

I think yields will actually go higher because once again, we're going to see inflation pressure, we're going to see... need to, you know, fund the military go across and not just at the US, but globally. Linked to geopolitical escalation (no ceasefire) driving inflation and increased military spending.

3/23/2026 7:47:20 PM	short term down	6 days later	-1.14%	+1.14%
2/23/2026 8:50:13 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.37%	-0.19%
11/25/2025 5:52:13 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+3.78%	+1.89%

Asks for Peter Tchir's view on the President's Iran comments and the 8pm deadline, and what he's watching in the markets.

speaker1
Peter Tchir

Highly suspects there will be no ceasefire. Currently bearish and selling into the morning rally. A ceasefire would benefit the US militarily but sees little incentive for Iran.

Explains US could use ceasefire to replenish military, get ships in place, do maintenance, and build a coalition.
Asks specifically what happens to commodities, the 10-year yield, and the S&P if the situation escalates.

speaker1
Peter Tchir

Expects a 3-5% pullback in stocks if attacks continue/escalate. Believes yields will go higher due to inflation pressure and global military funding needs. Energy stocks will do well, but concern grows about an economic slowdown.

Highlights 'ProSAC' (Production for Security and Resilience) theme: favors chips (Intel), electricity, military equipment, and European telecoms (Nokia, Ericsson) as countries seek domestic production of critical goods.
Asks for specific energy stock names he likes.

speaker1
Peter Tchir

Prefers energy ETFs (XOP, XLE) and service companies. Overweight European energy (BP, Shell, Total) versus US, expecting Europe to unleash domestic energy production.
Asks if, after the expected sell-off, he would buy the broad market (S&P 500/QQQ) or specific names.

speaker1
Peter Tchir

Would buy the specific 'ProSAC' names mentioned. Base case is prosecuting the war to prevent a nuclear Iran; a conclusion could spark a 'global peace rally'. Until then, cautious on 'war is over' headlines.
Asks what economic data he's watching closely to gauge the economy's state.

speaker1
Peter Tchir

Focuses on the 'working poor' and affordability, not job losses. Increasingly worried about a unique recession driven by people with jobs struggling to make ends meet, exacerbated by high electricity costs.

Cites conflicting data (strong jobs vs. weak ISM services) and uses electricity bills as a universal pain point indicating broad affordability stress.

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