Tech Reversion and Fixed Income Strategy (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

Alicia Levine sees an opportunity for a reversion trade in hardware/tech stocks as AI beneficiaries have outperformed spenders. The collapse in Mag 7 multiples provides an entry point. On fixed income, she expects at least one Fed hike this year, favors the belly of the curve, and warns that oil's decline won't change core inflation. AI concentration in indices creates correlation risks across asset classes.

Yields up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX cautious up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

BNY 6.9
Wealth Manager $2000.00B
Alicia Levine 8.0

Tech Reversion and Fixed Income Strategy (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

ndx

Expects a summer reversion trade in hardware/tech, suggesting near-term upside for the Nasdaq.

yields

We see at least one hike for this year.

4 calls

+0

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.58%	+0.29%
11/28/2025 5:12:01 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+1.78%	-0.89%
11/7/2025 7:00:46 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.34%	+0.17%
10/15/2025 2:04:39 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	-0.33%	+0.49%

Show all 4 yields results

Introduces Alicia Levine and her optimism on tech, asking about visibility on Mag 7.

Tom Keene
Alicia Levine

The collapse in Mag 7 multiples gives an entry point. AI spending from hyperscalers ($800B this year) funds other companies; the market has rotated from spenders to beneficiaries, leaving hardware unloved. Expects a summer reversion trade.

20% of S&P market cap (AI beneficiaries) will grow earnings 70% YoY vs 15% for the rest.
Raises concern about market concentration in tech and AI.

Paul Sweeney
Alicia Levine

Correlations across asset classes have become very high; AI dominates both US and EM indices (e.g., 52% of EM ex-China is Taiwan Semi and Korea). This means diversified portfolios aren't actually buying different factors, creating short- and long-term complexity.

EM used to be about energy, materials, financials; now it's AI.
Notes the Nasdaq has an ~8% drawdown on a weekly chart but feels worse.

Tom Keene
Alicia Levine

Many Mag 7 names are flat or negative for the year; Russell 1000 Growth is flat while some hardware stocks are up 100%. Investors have followed cash flow to concentrated areas.

Nimble investors have followed where cash flow is going.
Asks about the fixed income call.

Paul Sweeney
Alicia Levine

Expects at least one hike this year; favors the belly of the curve due to duration risk from massive debt. Oil dropping 20% won't change core inflation because hardware costs are feeding into consumer goods. The Fed's problem is core, not headline.

Previous Feds never hike just once; it's always a cycle. The Warsh Fed could be different.

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