Jim Caron argues we are in a higher nominal GDP regime (6.1% YoY), which puts upward pressure on yields and keeps inflation above target. He recommends being underweight duration and overweight high-quality credit and selective high yield. AI capex is reasonable relative to balance sheets; early adopters using AI to generate earnings will be winners. He falls in the bull camp on AI, seeing more net winners than losers.
explicit
implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Morgan Stanley
9.0
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Jim Caron 9.0
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Jim Caron 9.0
6/29/2026 6:48:37 PM
ndx
Bull camp on AI; early adopters generating earnings from AI will be winners, supporting tech-heavy indices.
yields
Yields probably don't go down materially and stay down unless there's a recession.
| 5/20/2026 9:05:17 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -2.03% |
| 5/13/2026 1:42:53 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +2.31% |
| 5/7/2026 7:48:56 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.09% | -1.04% |
| 3/28/2026 12:19:11 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 12/23/2025 1:36:10 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.48% | +0.24% |
| 12/18/2025 1:46:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.39% |
| 12/8/2025 1:14:06 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.67% | +0.84% |
| 12/2/2025 9:28:55 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.76% | -1.38% |
| 11/28/2025 6:46:36 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +1.78% | -1.78% |
| 11/25/2025 12:34:15 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +3.78% | -3.78% |
| 11/22/2025 1:57:04 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.57% | -1.78% |
| 11/14/2025 8:08:25 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -2.30% | +1.15% |
| 11/12/2025 1:48:25 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.13% |
| 11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.73% | +1.86% |
| 11/3/2025 5:11:21 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.25% | +0.62% |
| 10/21/2025 3:40:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 9/24/2025 2:05:49 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 9/17/2025 8:50:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/8/2025 7:17:58 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.98% | +0.49% |
| 9/4/2025 5:07:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.10% | -1.05% |
| 8/12/2025 6:27:35 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.43% | -1.22% |
| 8/5/2025 10:59:28 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.90% | -0.90% |
| 8/5/2025 2:12:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.26% | -0.63% |
