Credit Strategy & Fed Outlook (with Carol Massar, Tim Stenavic)

Yields cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX cautious up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

BNP Paribas 8.5
Investment Bank $600.00B
Meghan Robson 8.5

Credit Strategy & Fed Outlook (with Carol Massar, Tim Stenavic)

ndx

Discussion of tech sector CapEx surge and borrowing, plus Fed backstop for asset prices, suggests supportive environment for growth/tech stocks.

yields

We think we get one more cut next year Forecast of one more Fed cut implies downward pressure on yields, though limited by inflation acceleration.

12 calls

-3

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/3/2025 10:24:12 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.90%	-0.95%
12/1/2025 1:30:08 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.03%	-1.02%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.28%	-1.28%
10/31/2025 1:03:58 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-1.66%	-0.83%
9/2/2025 8:43:37 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-2.16%	+1.08%
8/26/2025 9:07:48 AM	short term down	6 days later	+0.92%	-0.92%

Show all 6 yields results

Asks Meghan Robson about value of upcoming economic data and credit market conditions.

Carol Massar
Meghan Robson

Market wants employment data despite noise; investors thinking about Q4 earnings.

Relief to get past data and see where it comes in.
Meghan Robson

BNP forecasting inflation to accelerate into 2026 to around 3% due to tariffs and delayed goods impact.

Expect one more Fed cut next year but inflation will prevent extended cutting cycle.
Meghan Robson

Fed biased toward unemployment side; Powell seems biased toward protecting labor market, likely more cuts based on that posture.

Inflation lower on priority list for now compared to pandemic-era concerns.
Meghan Robson

Credit market debate: transition from deleveraging to releveraging; pickup in supply expected but less than consensus due to elevated rates.

K-shaped economy: tech/utilities with CapEx surge vs consumer sectors cautious on leverage.
Meghan Robson

High-yield recommendations: like mortgage servicers/originators (benefit from falling rates); avoid leisure/out-of-home entertainment exposed to middle-income weakness.

Cruise lines have lagged impact due to pre-booking but have deleveraged balance sheets.

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