Kevin Hincks notes the S&P 500 rally is narrowing (9 of 11 sectors lower at one point Friday), overbought on RSI, and may run out of positive catalysts. He sees a very low probability of a rate hike under new Fed Chair Warsh, who favors balance sheet reduction to lower rates. Key focus this week: labor market data (JOLTS, ADP, payrolls) and Nvidia's CPU entry pressuring AMD/Intel.
implicit
implicit
explicit
Metals
explicit
Charles Schwab
7.8
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kevin Hincks 3.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kevin Hincks 3.0
6/1/2026 4:30:24 PM
dxy
He wants the dollar to be the global standard.
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.69% | +0.69% |
| 5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.54% | +0.54% |
| 3/17/2026 6:01:27 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.14% | +1.14% |
| 3/16/2026 6:01:06 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -0.63% | -0.32% |
| 3/9/2026 3:30:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.89% | +0.89% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.42% | +0.62% |
| 2/14/2026 1:07:19 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.81% | -0.91% |
| 2/13/2026 10:41:21 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.81% | -0.91% |
| 2/11/2026 7:00:21 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.12% |
| 2/9/2026 4:30:10 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.30% | -0.30% |
| 1/30/2026 7:01:03 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 1/29/2026 7:00:16 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.97% | -0.48% |
| 12/15/2025 6:00:31 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.12% | -0.06% |
| 12/12/2025 11:30:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +0.12% | -0.06% |
| 12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 12/11/2025 6:01:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 12/10/2025 6:01:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.07% | +0.04% |
ndx
Nvidia's CPU entry is positive for Nvidia but negative for AMD/Intel, suggesting mixed signals for NDX. The rally is narrowing and overbought, implying caution near term.
rut
The rally is getting more narrow with 9 of 11 sectors lower, suggesting small caps (RUT) are underperforming large caps. Warsh's policies could help small businesses longer term, but near term the narrowing is negative.
wti
Crude oil is up about 2.75% to start the day. The relationship between crude oil and markets this morning... one of those has got to give.
| 5/21/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -4.10% |
| 5/20/2026 3:30:13 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/19/2026 4:00:55 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -0.84% |
| 5/13/2026 4:07:44 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +9.79% |
| 5/12/2026 6:01:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +3.78% |
| 5/12/2026 3:43:59 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/11/2026 6:01:37 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:30:59 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/6/2026 7:01:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.77% | +7.77% |
| 5/6/2026 6:30:38 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +7.77% | -3.89% |
| 5/5/2026 4:37:16 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +3.14% | -3.14% |
| 5/5/2026 3:38:25 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.14% | +1.57% |
| 5/4/2026 3:36:16 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -4.11% | -6.16% |
| 5/1/2026 6:30:15 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 4:30:29 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 4/30/2026 6:01:11 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -3.36% |
| 4/29/2026 10:30:10 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 6:30:43 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 4:30:58 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/27/2026 6:00:43 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 4:30:46 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 3:45:31 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/24/2026 7:01:37 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +12.75% | +6.38% |
| 4/24/2026 3:30:34 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +10.43% | -5.21% |
| 4/17/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 6:00:59 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 3:32:53 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -3.77% |
| 4/17/2026 1:00:06 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/13/2026 4:31:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/11/2026 2:00:47 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | -9.56% | +14.34% |
| 4/3/2026 2:00:27 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 4/3/2026 12:14:01 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 3/27/2026 6:00:24 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/24/2026 6:00:01 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 3/24/2026 4:30:32 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +13.91% | +6.95% |
| 3/24/2026 2:00:29 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +13.91% | -6.95% |
| 3/23/2026 6:00:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +3.64% |
| 3/20/2026 7:58:07 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +16.74% |
| 3/19/2026 3:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -8.14% |
| 3/19/2026 2:34:25 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -4.07% |
| 3/18/2026 5:00:40 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/17/2026 6:01:27 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/17/2026 2:31:24 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/13/2026 1:00:26 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -5.74% |
| 3/9/2026 6:15:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/9/2026 5:30:33 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 1/7/2026 6:30:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 12/30/2025 10:30:10 PM | long term down | 61 days later | +24.05% | -24.05% |
| 12/22/2025 5:01:11 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/17/2025 4:30:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.97% | +3.97% |
| 12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.61% | +2.61% |
| 10/14/2025 5:34:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.29% | +0.64% |
| 9/25/2025 6:01:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -6.00% | -6.00% |
| 8/7/2025 12:00:18 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.93% | -1.93% |
yields
Very low probability of rate hike under Warsh, who favors balance sheet reduction to lower rates. This suggests yields may not rise significantly, but also no cuts expected near term.
