RBC's Helima Croft: Still losing significant volumes of oil every single day

Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets discusses the limited impact of the 100 million barrel SPR release, noting daily losses of 1-1.2 billion barrels due to the war. She warns of rapid inventory draws and potential tank bottom risks, and emphasizes that the endgame for the Strait of Hormuz control is critical for oil price normalization.

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RBC's Helima Croft: Still losing significant volumes of oil every single day

Oil

wti

If we are in this sort of stalemate right now, we are drawing inventories at an astonishingly rapid rate. So if we don't get an off ramp to the war, if we continue to lose 10 million plus barrels, we are going to exhaust this inventory buffer.

5 calls

-5

slightly worse than random

4/27/2026 7:46:28 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+8.74%	-4.37%
10/31/2025 2:33:08 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	-1.51%	+0.75%
10/23/2025 10:52:12 PM	short term up	5 days later	-1.66%	-1.66%
10/10/2025 6:48:02 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-3.41%	-1.70%
10/3/2025 1:27:51 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-3.44%	+1.72%

Show all 5 wti results

Frank

The president announced a 100 million barrel release from the SPR. Why are oil prices up 2% if supply is coming to market?
Helima Croft

The composition of the 100 million barrel release is unclear—whether from floating storage or previously sanctioned barrels. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is well below pre-crisis levels, with only 6-8 ships escorted vs. 15 normally. The war has removed 1-1.2 billion barrels from the market, so the release is insufficient to offset daily losses.
Frank

If the war ends soon, will oil prices immediately drop, or are there structural factors keeping prices high?
Helima Croft

A sell-off would occur upon a deal, but full normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz depends on how the war ends. If Iran retains operational control and charges transit fees, prices won't normalize to pre-crisis levels. The US must ensure Iran does not control the strait.
Frank

Given more strikes on Iran, what is your view on oil prices over the next 30 days, with July 4th travel demand?
Helima Croft

If the stalemate continues, inventories are being drawn at an astonishingly rapid rate. Without an off-ramp, we risk exhausting the inventory buffer and reaching tank bottoms. Below 300 million barrels in the SPR threatens its operational integrity. There will be increasing pressure to end the conflict.

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