AI capex and productivity are driving US growth. Fed needs to see through tariff and oil inflation before cutting; cuts expected early next year. Dollar weakness likely later in 2026. ECB may hike in June due to stronger oil pass-through, creating central bank divergence.
implicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
explicit
Morgan Stanley
8.4
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Rajeev Seebul 8.5
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Rajeev Seebul 8.5
5/21/2026 9:17:57 AM
dxy
Weaker dollar is in store, but perhaps later in the year.
| 3/30/2026 3:26:32 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 3/12/2026 10:06:31 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.27% | -0.27% |
| 3/3/2026 10:25:25 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.67% | +0.67% |
| 12/8/2025 1:14:06 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -1.19% | +1.19% |
ndx
AI capex and productivity are key US growth drivers expected to continue for next couple years, supporting tech and Nasdaq.
| 4/30/2026 3:32:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.21% | +3.21% |
| 4/24/2026 8:25:21 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +1.27% | +1.27% |
| 4/23/2026 8:05:33 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.43% | +0.21% |
| 12/19/2025 7:40:58 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +1.28% | +1.28% |
| 12/15/2025 10:20:08 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.07% | +1.07% |
| 12/2/2025 5:18:13 PM | long term up | 61 days later | +0.52% | +0.52% |
| 11/28/2025 6:46:36 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +1.12% | +1.12% |
| 11/25/2025 1:41:12 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.41% | -0.41% |
| 11/25/2025 12:34:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.42% | +0.42% |
| 11/24/2025 4:43:34 PM | long term up | 62 days later | +2.78% | +2.78% |
| 11/22/2025 1:57:04 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +0.78% | +0.78% |
| 11/14/2025 8:08:25 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.34% | +3.34% |
| 11/7/2025 11:22:11 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -3.17% | -3.17% |
| 11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.35% | +1.17% |
| 11/3/2025 5:11:21 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -2.21% | -2.21% |
| 10/31/2025 9:47:56 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.39% | -1.39% |
| 10/31/2025 3:02:13 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -4.23% | -2.12% |
| 10/21/2025 3:40:54 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.63% | +2.63% |
| 10/14/2025 9:08:43 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.79% | +2.79% |
| 10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.26% | +1.26% |
| 9/23/2025 3:45:06 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.31% | +0.31% |
| 9/22/2025 11:26:50 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +0.13% | +0.06% |
| 9/8/2025 9:33:32 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +1.90% | +1.90% |
| 9/4/2025 5:07:54 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +3.15% | +3.15% |
| 9/4/2025 9:41:48 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +3.15% | -1.57% |
| 8/18/2025 11:36:07 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.61% | +1.61% |
| 8/7/2025 5:16:29 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.39% | +0.39% |
| 8/5/2025 10:59:28 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.90% | +0.90% |
yields
Fed is cautious due to oil and tariff inflation; rates likely to remain elevated or move higher until inflation clarity emerges.
| 3/28/2026 12:19:11 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 12/23/2025 1:36:10 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.48% | +0.24% |
| 12/18/2025 1:46:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.39% |
| 12/8/2025 1:14:06 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.67% | +0.84% |
| 12/2/2025 9:28:55 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.76% | -1.38% |
| 11/28/2025 6:46:36 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +1.78% | -1.78% |
| 11/25/2025 12:34:15 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +3.78% | -3.78% |
| 11/22/2025 1:57:04 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.57% | -1.78% |
| 11/14/2025 8:08:25 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -2.30% | +1.15% |
| 11/12/2025 1:48:25 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.13% |
| 11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.73% | +1.86% |
| 11/3/2025 5:11:21 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.25% | +0.62% |
| 10/21/2025 3:40:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 9/24/2025 2:05:49 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 9/17/2025 8:50:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/8/2025 7:17:58 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.98% | +0.49% |
| 9/4/2025 5:07:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.10% | -1.05% |
| 8/12/2025 6:27:35 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.43% | -1.22% |
| 8/5/2025 10:59:28 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.90% | -0.90% |
| 8/5/2025 2:12:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.26% | -0.63% |
