Macro outlook and AI selectivity (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

Sandy sees the macro backdrop improving due to easing Middle East tensions and lower oil prices, but warns the Fed has turned more hawkish. AI is a transformative long-term trend, but investors must be selective as not all AI-related stocks will benefit equally. Valuations are high, requiring active management. Korea and Taiwan offer opportunities but carry idiosyncratic risks.

implicit

explicit

implicit

RockCreek 6.0
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Sandy Beschloss 8.5

Macro outlook and AI selectivity (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

dxy

A more hawkish Fed typically supports the dollar.

metals

Sandy highlights Korea's advantage in nuclear power components, implying demand for industrial metals.

ndx

Sandy is bullish on AI long-term but warns of high valuations and the need for selectivity, implying a cautious but not bearish view on tech.

rut

Sandy's cautious macro view and call for selectivity suggest a neutral view on small caps.

wti

The news on the Hormuz straight and on the war came in... those are good for reducing inflation.

2 calls

-44

reliably incorrect, often opposite to market

4/11/2026 3:00:00 PM	short term up	7 days later	-9.56%	-9.56%
4/11/2026 2:00:44 AM	short term up	7 days later	-9.56%	-9.56%

yields

Sandy states the Fed has become much more hawkish over the last 10 days, which implies upward pressure on yields.

Asks about macro optimism given falling oil prices and Middle East resolution.

Romaine Bostick
Sandy Beschloss

Macro backdrop improved this week with Hormuz news, reducing inflation volatility. However, the Fed has become much more hawkish over the last 10 days, which is not great for equities. Geopolitics remain strained (US-China, drones). Overall, still very careful.

The positive macro news is offset by hawkish Fed and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Asks about institutional sentiment on the long-term AI trade after Micron's earnings.

Romaine Bostick
Sandy Beschloss

AI infrastructure will continue to be huge, but not every stock (data centers, hyperscalers) will keep going up. Component prices rose, affecting Apple products. Selectivity is key, particularly around hardware.

Compares AI buildout to railroad infrastructure buildout in the 1800s.
Asks about Abby Joseph Cohen's view that valuations are priced to perfection.

Katie Greifeld
Sandy Beschloss

Agrees with Cohen on high valuations, but argues this calls for active management and selectivity. Huge gains are still possible in specific stocks, including outside the US (Korea, Taiwan).
Asks about risk factors in South Korea and Taiwan given recent volatility.

Katie Greifeld
Sandy Beschloss

Korea has advantages beyond AI (nuclear power components), making it a longer-term play. Taiwan is driven by 1-2 stocks with high volatility. A huge amount of Taiwanese resources went into debt markets, and the government failed to raise money at auction, so be careful.
Asks about Alan Greenspan's legacy and his relevance to current Fed policy.

Romaine Bostick
Sandy Beschloss

Greenspan's quote is relevant: 'If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I said.' This is what Kevin Warsh is trying to do.

SignalTube

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