McNally: Oil Disruption From Hormuz Could Last Weeks

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Rapidan Energy Group 1.0
Industry Research Firm
Bob McNally 8.0

McNally: Oil Disruption From Hormuz Could Last Weeks

WTI

wti

oil prices I'm afraid are going to continue marching in the triple digit range... we can go well into the mid $100 range and beyond Disruption of Strait of Hormuz (20% of world energy) with no end in sight for weeks; IEA release and pipeline redirects insufficient; prices will rise until ceasefire or economic slowdown.

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more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

2/26/2026 10:22:25 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+43.45%	+65.17%
1/9/2026 10:29:38 PM	long term up	60 days later	+65.90%	+65.90%
1/2/2026 9:58:07 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.96%	-1.98%
10/20/2025 10:01:23 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+6.04%	-3.02%
10/20/2025 9:50:44 PM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+6.04%	-9.05%
8/15/2025 10:37:13 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+2.18%	+1.09%

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Asks for timeline of disruption and how long it will take to get barrels back to market once pipelines are turned back on.

Tyler
Bob McNally

Based on June analysis and military consultation, disruption will last weeks, with 30 days as a base case. No minimum safety for US Navy or commercial ships to enter.

Mapped Hormuz disruption analysis last June, consulted military officers.
Notes McNally's sobering, accurate takes and questions impact of IEA's 400M barrel release and potential for $150/barrel oil.

History suggests timing issues and drawdown rates may mean the release has no impact.

Host
Bob McNally

DOE will release barrels, but steps won't matter as Hormuz artery is too big. Oil prices will continue in triple digits until ceasefire or prices enforce 'iron law of economics' by slowing growth.

World economy can't grow without 20% of its energy. Prices can go into mid-$100s and beyond to slow economic growth.
Asks if domestic producers can benefit given uncertainty and risk of government intervention.

References President Trump's view that higher prices are good for domestic producers.

Tyler
Bob McNally

Domestic producers are cautious because price spikes signal coming crashes. They will hunker down and wait.

20-year history of boom-bust cycles; last thing they want is to hire expensive rigs and workers only for a crash.
Asks if $4 gasoline is next if crude stays in triple digits.

Notes national average is $3.63.

Host
Bob McNally

Yes, national average will head to $4. Real question is if we exceed 2022 pump price highs. We are losing 15-20M barrels/day with no end in sight.

In 2022, we thought we'd lose 3M bpd from Russia and hit $5/gallon but lost none. Now actual loss is much larger.
Asks if it's the right time for government to buy crude oil futures.

Host
Bob McNally

Federal government should not be involved in futures markets. It's dangerous to bet taxpayer money.

Cites example of Soros breaking Bank of England on Black Wednesday. Hopes rumor of government buying isn't true.

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