Global macro outlook: disinflation, dollar, and bonds (with David, Yvonne)

explicit

NDX

RUT

Oil

explicit

BCA Research 1.0
Industry Research Firm
Arthur Budaghyan 7.5

Global macro outlook: disinflation, dollar, and bonds (with David, Yvonne)

dxy

I think dollar will be falling... over the next 12 months or so, I believe your dollar will depreciate substantially versus Asian currencies versus European currencies...

4 calls

-4

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

2/19/2026 10:05:30 AM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.98%	-1.98%
2/13/2026 4:51:47 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.81%	-0.91%
1/2/2026 11:51:35 PM	long term cautious down	60 days later	+0.73%	-0.37%

Show all 3 dxy results

metals

Gold, silver, copper are witnessing very overbought conditions and are going to correct over the next several months... I won't be chasing gold higher from this point...

3 calls

+30

reliable positive edge across multiple calls

2/19/2026 10:05:30 AM	medium term down	20 days later	-0.54%	+0.54%
1/7/2026 9:15:35 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+30.93%	+30.93%

yields

I would be worried about kind of weaker growth and subsequent disinflation, not inflation right now... I recommend buying bonds in Japan, in Europe, in many emerging market economies...

3 calls

-12

slightly worse than random

1/7/2026 9:15:35 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.63%	-0.81%
9/3/2025 9:29:02 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-0.69%	+0.69%

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